Why did the market fall sharply? The six public offerings are quickly released!
After several days of continuous volatility in the market, the market fell sharply on April 20. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.35%, the gem index fell 3.66%, and the gem index hit a new low. Coal, real estate and steel sectors led the market. Photovoltaic, lithium and other new energy sectors, which have been adjusted for a long time, fell sharply again, while food and beverage, consumer services and household appliances rose against the market.
stocks showed differentiation, and many large market capitalization GEM stocks fell sharply. For example, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by more than 7%, the market value fell below trillion to 948.7 billion yuan, and 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 0% fell by the limit. Recently, a number of popular stocks fluctuated sharply. For example, the "sky floor" trend was staged in Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co.Ltd(603648) session, Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) close to the "sky floor", and China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) session fell from the limit to close to the limit, and closed again
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index fell 1.35%, 2.07% and 3.66% respectively. The turnover of the two markets exceeded 820 billion yuan, including 373573 billion yuan in Shanghai and 447106 billion yuan in Shenzhen.
What caused the A-share market to fall again? How will the future market go? Boshi fund, Cinda AoYa, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Jinying fund, Jinxin fund and Hang Seng Qianhai and other public funds gave the latest interpretation.
the lower than expected quarterly report and other factors triggered market fluctuations
On the 19th, the first quarter report of the photovoltaic leader was significantly lower than expected. Shortly after the opening, it directly fell by the limit, resulting in the sharp decline of relevant sectors, dragging down the sharp correction of the gem index.
There was a sharp correction in the growth enterprise market. Boshi Fund believes that it is mainly affected by these aspects: first, due to the rise in the expectation of the Federal Reserve's sharp tightening of money, the recent US bond yield has risen rapidly, and the 10-year US bond yield approached 3% on the 19th, putting pressure on growth stocks with more sensitive liquidity again; Secondly, the LPR announced in April remained unchanged, the "interest rate cut" previously expected by the market failed, and the market sentiment was low; Moreover, due to the epidemic and the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the downward pressure on the profits of middle and downstream companies has increased, and the overall risk appetite is weak.
Affected by multiple adverse news, several popular sectors unexpectedly fell suddenly. How big is the impact?
From the perspective of the industry's own factors, Qianhai open source Fund believes that 1. The core reason for the adjustment of upstream resource products such as coal, petroleum and petrochemical is that OPEC + production increase expectation leads to the sharp decline of crude oil prices in the night; 2. In terms of real estate, the main reason is that there has been an obvious rise before, adding that the recent policy relaxation is less than expected, and the concern about real estate credit risk has heated up again under the pressure of debt repayment; 3. For new energy, the annual report and the first quarter report released by sunshine energy, which is mainly one of the leading stocks, were significantly lower than expected. Coupled with the previous rumors that the performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) first quarter was lower than expected, the volume of relevant targets and sectors fell sharply.
The worry about the prosperity of the growth sector is also one of the main reasons for the sharp decline of the cost sector, Cinda Australia Asia Fund believes that the reason for the market decline is also the Shanghai epidemic. Although there are signs of an inflection point, there is still great uncertainty about the time of closure and control, and the degree of resumption of work is still relatively low. The market worry has changed from worrying about excessive consumption to worrying about the supply chain of the industrial chain, On the one hand, poor logistics transportation leads to increased impact on the supply chain; On the other hand, the production links of some enterprises have also been affected. The media reported that some new energy vehicle enterprises in Shanghai have stopped production, and some battery enterprises have tightened control. As an important area of integrated circuit production in China, the production in Shanghai may be affected, which may affect many industries, causing concerns about the prosperity of the manufacturing growth field in the market.
The recent volatility of A-Shares has intensified, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the market turnover is shrinking, and the activity has decreased significantly.
Hang Seng Qianhai equity investment director Qi Teng believes that the correction in the A-share market is mainly caused by short-term events, which lead to market pessimism. Specifically, first, external risk factors are still in place. Affected by the repeated epidemic and the repeated situation in Russia and Ukraine, market liquidity continues to be tight, risk appetite is still difficult to improve, and market risk aversion is strong; Second, the leading performance of photovoltaic inverter is less than expected, which is significantly different from the market's perception of the photovoltaic industry, resulting in further pessimistic market sentiment. Superimposed with the rumors that the performance of other leading enterprises in the first quarter is less than expected, investors are worried about the performance of Listed Companies in the new energy sector.
The first quarter report ushered in the peak period of disclosure, and the market did not appear in the first quarter report, but fell in a large area. In essence, Jinxin fund investment manager Long Yi said that it was because the first quarter report ushered in an intensive disclosure period, the market expectation was lower than the profit expectation, and the early valuation was relatively high. Therefore, when the performance of leading stocks is lower than expected, the chain reaction caused by preemptive shipment. In addition, the production restriction measures of the iron and steel industry also led to a sharp decline in relevant coal stocks, leading to a decline in the stable growth sector with good early performance.
how will the future market of A-Shares be interpreted
market concerns focus on changes in liquidity, transmission of fluctuations in peripheral markets, and future performance of hot track stocks, steady growth sectors and troubled industries. In response to these concerns, public funds have given the latest interpretation
With regard to the concerns about market liquidity, Boshi Fund believes that although the Federal Reserve has accelerated the tightening of liquidity, China's monetary policy still emphasizes "focusing on me", the tone of stability and looseness remains unchanged, and the liquidity remains reasonably abundant; As there are still many uncertain factors at home and abroad, before there is no strong data to prove that the economy is improving, the capital probability will continue to wait and see, and the A-share market will continue to fluctuate and bottom in the short term. From the medium and long-term perspective, the trend of China's economy to continue to improve remains unchanged, and the opportunities of A-Shares will still outweigh the risks. Industries benefiting from China's economic transformation and upgrading still have good allocation value, such as new energy, science and technology, advanced manufacturing and other sectors.
Long Yi also said that China's monetary policy is still in a loose cycle. The three arrows of RRR and interest rate cuts and structural policies are launched at the same time, and there is still some policy space in the follow-up. Therefore, we judge that it is less likely that the market will continue to fall sharply in the future, and the stock market is likely to maintain a structured market. In this case, we should abandon the drastic fluctuations in the market and return to the fundamentals of the industry and the company. Companies with mismatched overvalued sectors and their profit valuations need to be cautious. The undervalued sector with good growth rate, high prosperity and obvious marginal change will still be the direction of market choice after adjustment.
How will the market perform in the second quarter? Qianhai open source Fund believes that the overall market in the second quarter is still in the state of index shock consolidation and capital stock game.
Structurally, we will focus on and layout the investment opportunities after the improvement of the epidemic in stages. If the epidemic in China improves in the future, the sectors seriously dragged down by the epidemic, such as leisure services, food and beverage, commerce and retail, will be repaired.
Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that the current market rising momentum is still insufficient, the trading volume of the two markets continues to shrink and remain low, and the characteristics of the stock game are more significant. Under the background of shrinking trading volume in the short term, the market may further enlarge the interpretation of the performance news, and the volatility of the A-share market may increase in the short term, or it will still be in a volatile situation. However, on the whole, we believe that although the market still has repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares.
Golden Eagle Fund reiterated that it is difficult to repair the stock index in one move, and the bottom area is not pessimistic. After a series of stage disturbances, China's "steady growth" trend remains unchanged, and the positive impact on the stock market may be gradually reflected. We expect that the next important meeting in China may further clarify the determination, ability and important direction of "stable growth" on the policy side under the superposition of the current great pressure from outside China. In addition, before the overseas inflation pressure has significantly improved, the hawkish expectation management of the Federal Reserve is difficult to improve, and the subsequent evolution of overseas inflation still needs to be paid close attention. The improvement of investors' risk appetite is subject to substantial changes in direction, such as the stabilization of China's fundamentals and the digestion of overseas Fed tightening expectations. In terms of industry allocation, Golden Eagle Fund suggests maintaining a balanced allocation of "steady growth + underestimated technology + mass consumption"Center>
