\u3000\u3000 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176)
Event: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.80-7.01 billion in 2021, an increase of 140% - 190% at the same time; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 4.85-5.83 billion, an increase of 150% - 200% at the same time. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 will be RMB 1.49-2.7 billion, an increase of 31% - 138% at the same time, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 910-1.88 billion, an increase of 14% - 136% at the same time.
Comments:
21q4 roving volume and price increase steadily, or maintain a tight balance between supply and demand for 22 years. It is judged that the roving sales volume of 21q4 company is about 570000-580000 tons, which is roughly the same month on month. Benefiting from the price increase of some roving products in 21q4, it is judged that the average price per ton of 21q4 roving has increased steadily month on month. The main reasons for the price increase of roving products in 21q4 company are as follows: 1) tight supply and demand, good demand; 2) Fuel costs such as natural gas have risen. We judge that the roving market may continue to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in 22 years, the roving price may remain high, and the profit growth of the company's roving business may mainly come from the growth of sales volume. 21q4 electronic cloth prices fall, 22 years or will still be under pressure. It is judged that the average tax inclusive price of 21q4 electronic cloth is about 6.0-6.5 yuan / m, down about 1.0-1.5 yuan / M month on month. We estimate that the sales volume of 21q4 electronic cloth of the company is about 100 million meters; The net profit of electronic cloth in a single quarter may be around 280 million yuan, down about 200 million yuan. At the end of 21q4, the price of electronic cloth has dropped to 5-6 yuan / meter; Under the new supply pressure in 22 years, the price of electronic cloth may still be under pressure, and the profit of the company's electronic cloth sector may be under great pressure in 22 years.
21q4 deduction of non parent net profit may decrease month on month, mainly due to the decline of electronic cloth price and the provision of excess profit. We judge that the deduction of non parent net profit may fall near the median value of the performance forecast range. Referring to the median value of 21q4 deduction of non parent net profit of 1.39 billion, which is about 3% lower than that of 21q3, mainly due to the decline in the price of 21q4 electronic cloth and the increase in the withdrawal scale of 21q4 excess profit bonus compared with that of 21q3 (it is judged that the withdrawal of 21q4 excess profit bonus is about 400-500 million yuan). In addition, the non recurring profit and loss of 21q4 is about 500-600 million yuan, mainly from the government subsidies obtained from the relocation of Chengdu base and the proceeds from the sale of platinum rhodium alloy.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we are optimistic about the company's cost advantage in the roving field and the logic of increasing the proportion of the company's high-end products in the future. At the same time, we are concerned about the development of the company's electronic cloth business. It is expected to replicate the cost advantage in the roving field in this field and create a new source for the company's long-term profit growth. As the company has not released the accurate data of net profit attributable to the parent company for 21 years, and the difference between the performance forecast range and our previous profit forecast is small, we maintain the company's EPS forecast of 1.40 yuan, 1.54 yuan and 1.56 yuan from 2021 to 2023. The current price corresponds to the dynamic P / E ratio of about 13X in 2021, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than the expected risk; Risk of price decline of glass fiber products; Risk of rising raw fuel prices; Exchange loss risk caused by exchange rate fluctuation; Overseas subsidiaries are affected by local policies, risks, etc.
