The annual reports of listed banks that have been disclosed show that with the loosening of a series of real estate policies, the loan concentration of large state-owned banks has begun to optimize, and the proportion of individual housing loans showed obvious signs of improvement in the second half of last year. From the perspective of the proportion of real estate loans as a whole, listed banks show an accelerated convergence trend. Among them, the risk consideration of public housing loans has become the most important factor, and only the two "red line" indicators of individual banks are still high.
With the continuous introduction of steady growth policies, listed banks have optimized M & A loans and affordable rental housing loans. Market participants believe that the future real estate risk is expected to achieve a "soft landing".
state owned banks' individual housing loans increased significantly
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the real estate regulation policy has been optimized and adjusted. The central bank recently issued a notice on making every effort to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development, requiring the city to implement policies, reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements of commercial individual housing loans, support the reasonable financing needs of real estate development enterprises and construction enterprises, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
The reporter combed the latest annual reports of listed banks, and it can be seen that the proportion of real estate loans of large state-owned banks showed a downward trend after the implementation of concentration management, but since the second half of last year, all banks have made fine adjustments. More obviously, the proportion of individual housing loans increased in the second half of last year.
In order to enhance the ability of banking financial institutions to resist the fluctuations of the real estate market, the real estate loan concentration management system was officially implemented in 2021, which requires that the proportion of bank real estate loans and individual housing loans should meet the regulatory standards. Among them, the upper limit of individual housing loans of large state-owned banks is 32.5%, and the upper limit of the whole real estate loans is 40%. The upper limit of the proportion of medium-sized banks and small banks has been reduced step by step.
According to the data, at the end of 2021, the proportion of ICBC, CCB, BOC and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) individual housing loans exceeded the red line of 32.5%, and collectively stood at 33%, of which CCB was as high as 35.7%. Since the second half of last year, the proportion of individual housing loans of ICBC has increased, from 32.7% in the middle of last year to 33.1% at the end of the year.
Bank of communications and Agricultural Bank of China, which have been more cautious in the field of real estate, both began to increase personal housing loans in the second half of last year. Among them, the proportion of individual housing loans of BOCOM increased from 23.2% in the middle of last year to 24% at the end of the year, basically returning to the level before the implementation of the loan concentration management system.
"BOCOM's personal housing loans still have a certain space from the regulatory ceiling of 32.5%, and will continue to support the reasonable housing needs of residents. Recently, the number of housing loan orders in some cities began to show signs of rise." The relevant person in charge of BOCOM said.
"Among the listed banks, the housing related loans of large and medium-sized banks account for a relatively high proportion, followed by joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks." Said Liang Fengjie, chief analyst of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank.
According to the requirements of the loan concentration management system, the "two red lines" standards of medium-sized banks and small banks are more stringent. Among them, the upper limit of individual housing loans of joint-stock banks is 20%, and the upper limit of real estate loans is 27.5%; The two upper limits for small banks are 17.5% and 22.5% respectively.
From the annual report data, the proportion of small and medium-sized banks decreased significantly Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) individual housing loans accounted for 9%, and real estate loans accounted for less than 20%.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) banking analyst Ma Xiangyun said that although the latest annual report data is slightly different from the reported regulatory data, the index level of each bank can still be observed. On the whole, listed banks still have room to support individual housing loans and other loan needs, but some banks still need to control relevant risks.
However, some banks still hit the red line, of which China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) both personal loans and real estate loans exceeded the red line.
"steady growth" is expected to promote "soft landing"
Different from the improvement of individual housing loans, the proportion of real estate corporate loans of listed banks generally decreased. Ma Xiangyun said that this is closely related to the non-performing rate of the two businesses.
According to the latest bank annual report, at the end of last year, personal housing loans accounted for 27.7% of bank on balance sheet loans, which rebounded significantly in the second half of last year. At the same time, the non-performing rate increased only slightly by 0.01%, which is still the core high-quality assets of banks.
The loans to public real estate are obviously another situation - the proportion of loans to public real estate continues to decline, accounting for only 5.72%, but the non-performing rate is as high as 2.35%.
"At present, the bottom of the real estate policy has appeared. Despite the current downturn in real estate sales, the short-term real estate risk will still be exposed to some extent. In the future, with the continuous implementation of steady growth measures, the real estate risk will eventually achieve a 'soft landing'." Ma Xiangyun said.
Liang Fengjie said in the report that at present, the national steady growth policy is frequent, and the correction of real estate deviation is also continuing. The guarantee of real estate construction is expected to drive the demand for real estate investment and financing. With the gradual optimization of relevant indicators of real estate loan concentration management, listed banks are also expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of steady growth.
"Since last year, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank and other relevant departments have expressed their position to maintain stability, clearly encourage institutions to carry out M & a loan business in a stable and orderly manner, adhere to making progress in stability, prevent and resolve risks in the real estate market. In the future, the real estate market will be able to achieve stable development and there will be no major risks on the whole." The above person in charge of the Bank of Communications said.
