\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2-2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 13.2% – 24.5%; In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 1.05-1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 175% – 227%, an increase of about 241% – 306% compared with the third quarter of 2021 (net profit attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan).
The express business volume maintained high growth, and the single ticket revenue stopped falling and rebounded. In the first 11 months of 21 years, the company completed about 15 billion express tickets, a year-on-year increase of about 34.1%, higher than the industry average growth rate of 1.8pct; The express business volume of the company accounts for about 15.3% of the whole market, an increase of 0.2pct compared with the same period in 20 years. The company’s single ticket revenue in the first 11 months of 21 years was about 2.24 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of only 1.0%. The company’s single ticket revenue has achieved positive growth since August 21. The single ticket revenue from August to November increased by 1.0%, 4.7%, 6.9% and 12.3% respectively year-on-year. Under the influence of comprehensive volume and price, the express business revenue of the company in the first 11 months of 21 years was about 33.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 32.8%.
The development environment has been gradually improved, and the industry prices have continued to return to a reasonable level. In 2021, the state and some local governments successively issued a series of regulatory policies and guidelines for the express industry to regulate irrational competition and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the express industry. Affected by this, the service unit price of the express industry has increased, the price competition situation has slowed down significantly, and gradually changed from price driven to value driven, and the industry price has continued to return to a reasonable level.
The service quality has been continuously improved and the pricing power of products has been significantly enhanced. In 2021, the company will continue to promote the comprehensive digital transformation, adhere to the customer experience as the center, and attach great importance to the improvement of service quality; At the same time, the company deepened precision marketing, improved customer stratification and product upgrading, and accurately matched customers’ increasingly diversified express products and service needs. Affected by this, the company’s product pricing ability was significantly enhanced, promoting the steady growth of the company’s express business performance.
The express market management measures (Revised Draft) (Draft for comments) was issued, and the industry supervision continued to increase. On January 7, 2022, the State Post Office publicly solicited opinions on the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft) (hereinafter referred to as the “revised draft”). Compared with the current measures for the administration of express market, the revised draft has clear provisions on the specific business scope, price competition, express delivery, employee protection, information security and other aspects of express enterprises, The revised draft not only adds the relevant expression that express enterprises and employees shall not “provide express services at a price lower than the cost without justified reasons” in local regulations, but also makes it clear that express enterprises and employees shall not “collude with others to manipulate the market price and damage the legitimate rights and interests of other enterprises or users operating express business”. On the whole, the revised draft clearly regulates the main business behaviors of express enterprises. If it is officially implemented, it will not only improve the operating costs of express enterprises, but also improve the service quality of express enterprises, improve the working environment of express employees and improve the customer experience, further reduce the disorderly competition in the industry and promote the long-term high-quality development of the industry. In this process, express enterprises will benefit significantly.
Investment suggestions: the company’s service quality continues to improve and its product pricing ability is significantly enhanced; With the development of supervision, industry prices continue to return to a reasonable level. Considering the introduction of the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft), the disorderly competition in the industry will be further alleviated, and the express head enterprises will obviously benefit. We raised the company’s net profit of 21-23 years by 43% / 48% / 39% to 2.16 billion yuan, 2.69 billion yuan and 3.16 billion yuan respectively; Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuation risk leads to the decline of express demand; The industry competition exceeds the expectation, resulting in the decline of single ticket income, which affects the company’s profit level; The progress of investment projects with raised funds and the implementation of acquisitions was lower than expected.
