Gem reappeared crash!
In the morning trading on April 20, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once plummeted by more than 7.5%, and the market value evaporated by nearly 70 billion yuan in just one hour. At the same time, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) two industry leading stocks also plummeted, which led to a sharp decline in the gem index. As of the afternoon closing on the 20th, the Shanghai index fell 0.21%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.65% and the gem index fell 2.26%.
news surface, after the 19th session, there are rumors Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) q1 is expected to be less than 5 billion. Some researchers pointed out that when it comes to the report season, there will be many versions of rumors, and the accuracy is difficult to evaluate Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) had a big performance thunder, and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) also fell sharply after the release of the annual report and the first quarterly report
From the trend of gem and sci-tech innovation board, there has been a large decline in the concentration of these two growth stocks. So why did the popularity of growth stocks that performed well last year suddenly disappear this year? Analysts believe that the first is that the strong yield of the US dollar and US bonds affects the valuation, the second is that the broad credit failed to arrive as scheduled, and the confusion of the economic outlook also affects the valuation of growth stocks.
It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan made a move today: it will buy 10-year government bonds in unlimited quantities at a fixed interest rate of 0.25%, and the yield of this benchmark bond has risen to the upper edge of its tolerance range. Affected by this, the US dollar index began to callback. Can this keep the dollar strong?
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) re injury
On April 20, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plummeted again. In the early trading, the share price once fell by 7.5%, once close to the 400 yuan mark, and the market value evaporated nearly 70 billion yuan within one hour. Then it stabilized, but the trend is still relatively low.
after the last trading day, the market heard that the quarterly performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not reach 5 billion yuan. Some researchers said that if it is true, it will be significantly lower than expected. Whenever it comes to the report season, there will be many versions of rumors, and the accuracy is difficult to evaluate. The company is also unable to give relevant guidance, so it is really difficult to make judgment
The company’s performance is lower than expected for only one reason: the favorable price of lithium carbonate price rise is not timely. The price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly after the Spring Festival. The average price of bulk unit price in March is estimated to be 100000 yuan higher than that from January to February The output of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) per month is about 25gwh, corresponding to 20000 tons of lithium carbonate. It is assumed that 40% – 50% of the purchase in the retail market corresponds to 8000 tons, and the corresponding cost increases by 800-1 billion yuan.
According to the recent communication between the Research Institute and auto enterprises, the price increase of batteries supplied by some auto enterprises began in the second quarter (such as ideal); Tesla is still negotiating with Ningde about the price, and the game is whether the price is increased by 10% or 15%. If there is a large area of price transmission lag, it may lead to pressure on the operating data in the first quarter (mainly in March).
considering the impact of the epidemic in April, the annual performance rate will be reduced from 28-30 billion to 25-28 billion, mainly due to the cost pressure caused by the rising price of lithium carbonate and the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and Ningde the company’s competitiveness has not changed, and it is also fulfilling the logic of increasing its global share. The follow-up focus is on the breakthrough of new technologies (such as iron manganese lithium) and the further improvement of the self supply rate of lithium carbonate brought by the mining in Yichun, Jiangxi Province.
In addition to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) also fell sharply last night, with the share price falling by 20%. The company’s performance in 2021 and the first quarter of this year were lower than market expectations, and major banks such as Citigroup and CICC lowered the company’s target price.
Surprisingly, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , the company has just released its annual report and first quarter report, which are in line with expectations, but the share price still fell sharply.
On the morning of the 20th, the gem once fell nearly 54 points, but the contribution of the share price decline of the above three companies exceeded 52 points.
why growth stocks are no longer popular
Last year, these stocks have enjoyed great success, but they have fallen one after another since this year. So, why is the growth stock no longer beautiful? Analysts believe that the impact of the US dollar and US bond yields may be relatively large. The former affects liquidity and thus valuation. The latter rise suppressed all industries that had previously increased too much.
According to the research results of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , with the accelerated inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares in 2016, the correlation coefficient between wind a and the 10-year real interest rate of the United States (hereinafter referred to as tips) increased significantly from -0.43 before 2016 to -0.85 (20162022).
Since 2016, tips has experienced 7 rounds of rapid ascent, with an average duration of 41 natural days. During the rapid rise of tips, VIX usually soared sharply, NASDAQ and other global equity assets adjusted, the world entered the riskoff mode, the devaluation of RMB exchange rate triggered a net outflow of foreign capital, and finally A-Shares fell as a whole.
In terms of the A-share market industry, the rapid upward movement of tips has significantly impacted the industries with the highest growth in the previous period. According to the resumption of trading, the sectors leading the decline have accumulated large gains before: for example, coal in 16q4 (benefiting from economic recovery and supply side reform in the early stage), financial real estate in February 18 (rising sharply in the early stage), electronics and computers in Q4 18 (benefiting from self-control under trade friction in the early stage), semiconductors in March 20 (rising sharply in February 20), core assets after the Spring Festival 21 (rising sharply in the early stage), The new semi army in January 22 (obviously dominant in the past six months).
considering that the Fed is raising interest rates for the first time and has not yet started the stage of shrinking the table, the real interest rate tips may have a large upward space in the future
Bank of Japan
Today, however, the Bank of Japan made a move.
On April 20, the Bank of Japan reiterated its firm commitment to ultra loose monetary policy and restricted the rise of bond yields through a new round of unplanned bond purchase. The Bank of Japan said it would buy unlimited 10-year government bonds at a fixed interest rate of 0.25%, and the yield of the benchmark bond has risen to the upper edge of its tolerance range.
the central bank bought unlimited government bonds for four days in the last week of March. Wednesday was the first such action since this month. Since then, the selling pressure on bonds has intensified, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds moved towards 3% on Wednesday. Japan’s 10-year real yield fell 1 basis point to – 0.63% on Wednesday from the previous trading day
Affected by this, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen began to fall, and the US dollar index also showed a certain degree of correction today. In this situation, although the performance of the A-share index is weak, it still rises more and falls less on the disk, which also shows the influence of the US dollar index on the market to a certain extent.
So, can the Bank of Japan suppress the rising momentum of the US dollar index? Analysts believe that it may be difficult in the short term. After all, the Fed has not yet started to shrink its watch, and it has only raised interest rates once this year. On the other hand, the war between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, and the inflationary pressure is still large, which is not conducive to the strengthening of the yen exchange rate and Japanese bonds
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