\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued]2021 annual performance pre increase announcement. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan – 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.0% – 26.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.9 billion yuan – 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.3% – 34.0%; It is estimated that the revenue of single Q4 is 960 million yuan – 1.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.1% – 25.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 200 million yuan – 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 20.6% to + 58.4%.
High quality development in 2021 shows strong growth resilience. 1) Under the background of economic pressure and covid-19 epidemic in 2021, the company showed strong growth toughness. 21q4 continued the good development trend in the first three quarters, better achieved the annual goal, and the steady growth was full of gold. 2) The product structure continued to be optimized. In the first three quarters, the proportion of V-series beyond class a margin increased by + 120% year-on-year to 10.7%; The introduction of new products + d20.31% year-on-year, with a significant year-on-year effect of driving the introduction of new products + d20.235, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.30%. 3) Regional development is more balanced. In the first three quarters, 6 regions, 13 prefecture level cities and 74 offices in the province achieved regional growth; Significant breakthroughs have been made outside the province. The market growth of “2 + 5” key provincial plates has exceeded 35%, and the number of prefecture level cities with tax sales of more than 10 million outside the province has increased significantly.
In 2022, we will set the tone of “seeking speed in good times” and further promote the “13455” plan. 1) The company’s future development will set the tone of “seeking speed in good times, taking the lead in good words, and being able to be fast is fast”, strive to “complete the five-year goal ahead of schedule”, and formulate the “13445” plan with clear strategy and clear direction. 2) In 2022, the marketing work will further promote the “three modernizations” strategy of differentiation, high-end and nationalization, effectively promote the “four campaigns” of Guoyuan V series, Guoyuan open series promotion, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation and breakthrough outside the province, and continuously optimize the product and regional structure. 3) The company will continue to deepen the process of nationalization. In the future, it will spread out in Henan, Shandong, Anhui and other markets outside the province to form a new pattern of brand competition. At the end of the 14th five year plan, it will strive to increase the proportion of revenue outside the province to more than 20%.
Enjoy the bonus of secondary high-end capacity expansion, deepen reform and accelerate growth. 1) The secondary high-end price in Jiangsu market continues to expand. The company’s V-series and K-series precision card slots are secondary high-end, with outstanding achievements in brand and channel construction, and will enjoy the secondary high-end expansion bonus in Jiangsu Province. 2) The company continued to promote brand and channel construction, firmly promoted the V-series battle, established the V99 alliance, attracted large and excellent merchants, and better improved the potential energy of V-series brand and channel. 3) The company completed the share repurchase on November 30, 2021, and the equity incentive is expected to be implemented in 2022, which will effectively stimulate the enthusiasm of senior executives and middle-level backbone; Based on the company’s development demand of “seeking fast in good times”, the implementation of reform measures may be accelerated in 2022, so as to stimulate greater business potential.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.01 billion yuan, 2.54 billion yuan and 3.21 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 32 times, 25 times and 20 times respectively. In the future, the company will continue to enjoy the expansion bonus of sujiu sub high-end market. V99 alliance helps improve the potential energy of V series, and the superimposed equity incentive is expected to be implemented. It is optimistic about the company’s sustainable growth ability and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
