Today (April 20), the three major indexes collectively fell, and the gem index fell by more than 3%. Real estate related sectors continued to ebb, individual stocks fell in a large area, coal, steel, cement and other sectors also led the decline, while hotel catering, scenic spot tourism, prefabricated dishes, beverage manufacturing, community group purchase and other consumer sectors strengthened collectively.
consumer stocks have collectively strengthened recently, and the dilemma has turned into a hot spot in the market
Today, the post epidemic repair sectors such as hotels and tourism, which benefited from the expected reversal of difficulties, were among the top gainers again. Affected by the epidemic, the recovery progress of the tourism industry was disturbed in the first quarter of this year. According to the statistical results of China's tourism sampling survey, the total number of Chinese tourists in the first quarter was 830 million, a decrease of 194 million or 19.0% over the same period of last year Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the trend of weakening the impact of the epidemic is still relatively clear, and the mainline of maintaining the investment in epidemic repair will run through the judgment of the whole year. It is expected that the short-term market focus is not on the achievement, but the valuation repair under the expectation of gradual relaxation of control policies.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that with the gradual stabilization of the epidemic in Shanghai and China, offline economic repair will be an important main line of market transactions in the second quarter. The basic logic of offline economic recovery path is consistent with the relaxation direction of prevention and control policies. In various scenarios related to offline recovery, the recovery path follows: express delivery → flow of people, close consumption scenario → long-distance consumption scenario, required → optional, business travel → entertainment . From the perspective of market industry, the market repair of express, logistics, aviation, airport and other sectors is only the beginning. In the future, with the gradual verification of data, it is still worthy of continuous attention.
In addition to the post epidemic repair related sectors, the consumer related sectors have also continued to rise recently. As of today's closing (April 20), according to the statistics of nearly 10 trading days, the community group purchase, food processing, prefabricated vegetables and other sectors have led the increase Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the consumer sector is expected to benefit from the upward CPI environment. At the same time, from the valuation dimension, the valuation of some consumer sectors, such as medicine and biology, food processing and household appliances, is at the bottom. In addition, the current round of Shanghai epidemic will gradually enter the final stage, and the biggest impact on consumption is about to pass. In the context of uncertain external demand situation, expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will be the main focus of the policy.
pay attention to the market of large consumption sector and give consideration to the direction of prosperity and safety
Recently, hot topics have been rotating rapidly. Although the overall trend of the large consumption sector is upward, many popular sectors are still in the one-day tour market Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) pointed out that from the perspective of asset portfolio, for a long time, the buying point to gradually meet large consumption is a more comfortable and appropriate time point for cost performance, odds and winning rate. However, the process of gradually and slowly adding the consumption sector is not smooth. We should match it slowly and buy it slowly. We are not in a hurry to buy it at one go, because the epidemic situation is repeated, data verification and other disturbances exist, and the process is twists and turns. We should fight a "guerrilla war" and turn a small victory into a big victory.
From the perspective of subdivision direction, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that focuses on the opportunities of subdivision track and needs to take into account prosperity and safety . From the perspective of large consumption secondary industries, the differentiation of subdivided tracks is significant. Epidemic repair and pig cycle are still the main line, and the expected growth rate of film and television cinemas, hotel catering, tourism and scenic spots, feed and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing is ahead. However, other subdivided industries such as home furnishing, medical treatment and beauty also have higher expected growth rate as the impact of the epidemic on the demand side is still fermenting and the price of raw materials on the cost side is high, the current market expectation may not have fully accrued the impact of relevant factors. Considering safety, we can give priority to the of cosmetics, food and Baijiu, which is stable in performance and up to 22 years of expected growth.
