Today (April 20), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. At the beginning of trading, the inertia of the stock index fell, and the gem index showed a pulse downward, falling below the 2400 point mark; In the morning, the Shanghai index maintained a weak shock near yesterday’s closing point. In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes fell unanimously, and the weak pattern was at a glance.
In this regard, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the current stock index is in the weak consolidation stage, and the future market is facing the choice of breakthrough direction. Before the trend is clear, investors are advised to watch more and move less, and pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market.
At the same time, if the follow-up epidemic situation improves, what direction will the layout take China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) previously said that it sorted out the important events related to the epidemic since 2020 and summarized the market performance after five rounds of the epidemic were expected to improve. Considering the elasticity of increase and the probability of increase, if the subsequent epidemic situation is effectively controlled, we can focus on the following layout: 1. Alcohol: the restoration of economic activities is expected to improve the prosperity of the industry; 2. Tourism retail (duty-free): take advantage of the dislocation of the epidemic situation and follow the trend of consumption upgrading; 3. Aviation: after a short period of pressure, the profit elasticity will eventually be released; 4. Scenic spots and hotels: normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and marginal recovery of scenic spots and hotels.
sector:
I. logistics
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that compared with developed countries, China’s cold chain logistics industry started late and developed for a short time. At present, the scale of China’s cold chain logistics industry has reached more than 380 billion yuan, thanks to the improvement of the national economic level and the upgrading of household consumption. However, there is still a big gap between China’s cold chain logistics industry and developed countries in infrastructure construction. In 2020, the per capita cold storage capacity is only 0.13 cubic meters. In terms of industry competition, the concentration is still low. The market share of the top 100 enterprises is about 18%, and the first city in the industry accounts for less than 2%. However, in recent years, policy support has been strengthened, and the cold chain logistics development plan has been issued to help the construction of modern cold chain logistics system.
The agency believes that at present, China’s cold chain logistics industry is still in a period of rapid development. Compared with overseas developed countries, China’s cold chain industry has low concentration and low degree of standardization. At present, the competition among the top 100 enterprises is relatively fierce, and each enterprise has entered a period of rising capital investment. Looking forward to the future, the demand for food supply chain and medical logistics is increasing rapidly. At the same time, the improvement of temperature control technology and the improvement of industry standards also drive the development of cold chain logistics industry into a new stage, and the growth potential of the industry is still large. In terms of subject matter, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) which has laid out the cold chain industry earlier and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) which are expanding diversified business are recommended, with emphasis on JD logistics and Zhongtong express of Hong Kong stocks.
In addition, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that the epidemic did not hinder the long-term logic of the sector, and continued to recommend the e-commerce express industry. Looking back at the first quarter, the unit price of e-commerce express enterprises at the head was resilient, the overall year-on-year improvement trend remained unchanged, and the stability of the industry pattern was still being verified. At present, the e-commerce express industry has entered a new development stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. The development strategy of head enterprises has also changed from cost differentiation to income differentiation, paying more attention to the balance of service quality, operating profit and market share. The closure and control of the epidemic only affects the rhythm of the growth of express business volume, and does not change the trend of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the whole industry under pattern optimization. In the new development stage, the profit elasticity of price contribution is much greater than the impact of business volume changes. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the gradual repair of cash flow and the continuous improvement of profitability in the e-commerce express industry under the support of the improved pattern.
II. Food and beverage
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that since the beginning of the second quarter, home consumption has become the main axis under the influence of the epidemic. We believe that at the moment of consumption at home, prefabricated vegetables, pickled mustard tubers, frozen, dairy, high-end Baijiu, snack foods and other consumer goods are expected to maintain a good growth. With the support from the top down policy, the catering industry chain and related industries are expected to improve.
After the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the worst moment has passed. At present, the valuation of core leading enterprises is relatively reasonable or slightly low, and the demand for food is relatively rigid. We suggest to make a positive layout. Baijiu mainly pushed the strong, strong and strong Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The second high-end companies mainly promoted the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and the regional high-end high-end Chinese dragon makers, and suggested that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and sacrifice that the potential energy had already been built up. Yili, pickled mustard, Qiaqia, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, heavy beer, etc. are mainly recommended for food. Anjing, Ligao, Haitian, Juewei, Yuanzu, Ganyuan, etc. can also be considered.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that the pre prepared vegetables were surging under the catalysis of the epidemic, and the stocks damaged by the epidemic with a large decline in the early stage rebounded. Under the dual pressure of the impact of the epidemic and rising costs, the stock price of popular products continued to callback, and the market pessimism has been fully reflected in the stock price. The valuations of many companies fell back to the lower quartile in recent five years.
(1) the C-end demand of prefabricated vegetables has accelerated its penetration under the epidemic situation, and the logic of long-term growth is clear. Under the epidemic situation, residents had to cook at home every day, which made many consumers experience the convenience brought by prefabricated vegetables and accelerated the C-end penetration of prefabricated vegetables industry. In March, semi-finished dishes on platforms such as HEMA, dingdong shopping and Jingdong fresh food were in short supply. We are optimistic about the long-term development trend of the prefabricated vegetable industry. There is room to improve the permeability of both b-end and C-end, and the industry is in the early stage of rapid development. It is suggested to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , etc.
(2) the negative impact of the beer epidemic has weakened, market confidence has recovered, and the current high cost of the industry is superimposed. The market is expected that the price increase of the leading enterprises will be close and rebound more. On the whole, the high-end pace of the beer industry is still accelerating, and the performance of leaders such as China Resources, Tsingtao beer and heavy beer is outstanding in 2021. In the future, under the continuous optimization of high-end + cost / efficiency, the logic of long-term improvement of the profitability of the sector will continue to be realized.
(3) the inventory of quick-frozen rice noodles, convenience foods and other categories with strong hoarding properties accelerated to be cleared in March. After the national transportation and logistics returned to normal, it is expected that there is a demand for replenishing inventory. Superimposed on the low base of Q2 last year, Q2 may have performance elasticity, such as Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Keming noodles, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , etc.
(4) the epidemic affects travel, drinking, sports and other consumption scenes. Under the obstruction of e-commerce logistics, the estimated demand for non necessities such as leisure food, halogen products and pre mixed wine is reduced, the short-term performance of some stocks is damaged, the current valuation level is low, and it is expected to achieve high performance flexibility after the epidemic situation slows down. It is recommended to pay attention, such as Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) etc.
one drawing summary:
