Market review: index differentiation, led by agricultural electronic power
Today, the trend of the index was divided. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.49% to 319552, the Shenzhen index rose 0.37% to 1169147, and the gem index rose 1.11% to 248777. SSE 50 fell 1.46%, while CSI 1000 rose 0.81%. In terms of sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (3.43%), electronics (2.79%) and power equipment (2.24%) led the increase, while coal (- 3.49%), real estate (- 3.36%) and banks (- 2.97%) led the decrease. The turnover of the two cities was 778289 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.59% over the previous trading day and 14.19% over the previous five days. Due to the Easter holiday of Hong Kong stocks, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will not provide Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect services on Monday.
Market focus: US bond real yield and equity market style
On April 14, the yield of US bonds rose collectively. The yield of two-year US bonds rose 10.4 basis points to 2.464%, the yield of three-year US bonds rose 11.3 basis points to 2.686%, the yield of five-year US bonds rose 13.3 basis points to 2.793%, and the yield of 10-year US bonds rose 12.8 basis points to 2.833%, a new high since December 2018.
The Fed’s tightening expectation is heating up. At present, the rise of the real yield of US bonds may put pressure on the growth style and overvalued value, and the defensive attribute of value style is better. Looking back on the performance of the global equity market, the liquidity contraction has a strong correlation with the tangential value of the market style, mainly because on the one hand, the rising cost of debt makes it possible for enterprises to reduce their business expectations, on the other hand, the rising cost of capital makes market participants’ risk preference style change. However, it is worth noting that when the enterprise end profit performance can exceed the expected growth, even in the tightening cycle, the overestimated value of growth style can be gradually digested.
The debt interest margin between China and the United States has been at a low point in the past decade, which mainly reflects the economic cycle differences between China and foreign countries: China’s economic slowdown under the influence of the epidemic, high inflation overseas and tight labor market. In the face of the increasingly prominent downward pressure on the economy and the impact of the recent epidemic on China’s market players, the central bank reduced the reserve requirement by 25bp in a narrow range under the background of low market liquidity pressure, suggesting that we are in the process of cross cycle regulation, Pressure rise will not bring “flood irrigation”. Precision and efficient policy or top note means, improving credit structure is still the focus of current regulation. After the impact of the epidemic is repaired, and the marginal improvement of corporate earnings expectations, the market style will change.
Strategy suggestion: pay attention to the market value style and the rhythm of resumption of production and work
The trend of the index was divided, and more than 2800 stocks rose in the two cities as of the close. Aquaculture, auto parts and auto electronics performed strongly. The net outflow of main funds was 10.837 billion yuan, mainly flowing into themes such as new energy vehicles.
In terms of the general trend of a shares, at present, the negative factors at home and abroad have not been completely cleared, the market sentiment is low, and the repair will take time. In this process, it is vulnerable to periodic impact and continues to “grind the bottom”. In this regard, we maintain our previous judgment. At this stage, it is recommended to focus on large cap value stocks with better defense ability and valuation repair space. At the same time, the boom inflection point and allocation value of the concept of post epidemic recovery are becoming increasingly prominent. It is recommended to continue to pay attention and intervene in time.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected, the national epidemic is more than expected, and the geopolitical risk is intensified
