Macro categories:
Be alert to the impact of Fed tightening on global equity assets. On April 18, Brad, President of the Federal Reserve in St. Louis, said that the current inflation rate in the United States was "too high" and moderate interest rate hikes were not enough to curb it. The Federal Reserve needs to take rapid action to raise interest rates by 50 basis points several times to reach about 3.5% by the end of this year. He also pointed out that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time could not be ruled out. Previously, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March released the expectation of raising interest rates many times and significantly and shrinking the table in advance. It is planned to increase the scale of monthly asset reduction to $95 billion in three months, while the highest scale of the previous round of shrinking table is also $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
At present, the downward pressure on China's economy is still large. The growth rate of China's infrastructure investment slowed down in March and April, and the growth rate of China's infrastructure investment slowed down in March and April. In the forward-looking data, although the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale has rebounded slightly, social financing is mainly supported by short-term bills, and the growth rate of various loan balances of key financial institutions and medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents have not improved significantly. Under the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of offline consumption and service industry slowed down significantly. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in March increased by - 3.5% year-on-year, and the catering revenue fell sharply by 16.4% year-on-year. More importantly, residents' income and employment are under pressure, and the long-term driving force of the consumer side is further weakened, pointing to that after the resumption of work and production, consumption is difficult to repair quickly. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, our latest research shows that the recent national downstream construction has decreased year-on-year, but the month on month improvement is weak, and the characteristics of low peak season are significant.
In terms of commodities, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to pay close attention to the process of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, and be vigilant against the adjustment risks brought by the US dumping of reserves and the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities still maintain a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and under the background that 10Y US bonds once exceeded 2.9%, the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise, close to the historical high. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
Highlights:
On April 19, the national development and Reform Commission held a press conference in April. According to the official website of the national development and Reform Commission, the next step will be to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, severely crack down on illegal acts such as hoarding, bid up prices and spreading false information, and resolutely curb excessive speculation. In the next step, the national development and Reform Commission will work with relevant parties to strengthen the implementation of macro policies. Policies and measures will be pushed forward and moderately strengthened, and actively plan more policies and measures, strengthen policy coordination and linkage, and strive to stabilize the macro-economic market. Specifically, there are the following measures. First, focus on expanding consumption and promoting investment. In terms of consumption, the focus is to promote the introduction of policy documents to further release consumption potential and promote the sustainable recovery of consumption, strive to stabilize current consumption and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential. We will implement relief and support measures for food and beverage, retail, tourism, civil aviation, highway, waterway and railway transportation and other special industries, encourage local governments to increase assistance and stabilize more players in the consumer service market. We should expand consumption in key areas, continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and encourage local governments to carry out green smart appliances to the countryside and trade the old for the new. In terms of investment, our committee held a special press conference last Friday. In the next step, we will actively promote effective investment and strive to form more physical workload in the first half of the year. The second is to increase the efforts to help enterprises. The focus is to accelerate the implementation of the 18 policies to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy and the 43 policies to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service sector, increase targeted support for the real economy and small, medium and micro enterprises, strengthen the supervision of the implementation of the policy of reducing the burden and relieving small and medium-sized enterprises, and continue to carry out special actions to prevent and resolve the arrears of small and medium-sized enterprises. Third, we should firmly abide by the bottom line of people's livelihood.
On April 18, St. Louis Fed President Brad said in a video speech to the American Association for foreign relations that the current inflation rate in the United States is "too high" and moderate interest rate hikes are not enough to curb it. The Fed needs to take rapid action to raise interest rates by 50 basis points several times to reach about 3.5% by the end of this year. Brad pointed out that the interest rate increase of more than 50 basis points is not the basic scenario he predicted, but against the background that the US inflation level has repeatedly hit a 40 year high, he does not rule out the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time.
