\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048)
Event: on January 10, the company released the annual performance express of 2021.
In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 17% and its performance decreased by nearly 5% year-on-year. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 285.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The operating profit was 49.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. The decline in operating profit was mainly due to the decline in the gross profit margin of carry forward projects; The total profit was 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 27.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; The basic earnings per share was 2.30 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.
The annual sales increased by 6.4% and the sales scale ranked fourth in the industry. In 2021, the company achieved a contract amount of 534.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; The contracted area was 33.33 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; The average sales price was 16049.4 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. According to CRIC ranking, the annual sales amount of the company ranks fourth in the industry, one place higher than last year, and the growth rate of sales amount ranks 15th among the top 40 real estate enterprises. By the third quarter of 2021, 367.2 billion yuan of sales had been returned, with a return rate of 89.5%.
In December, the intensity of land acquisition warmed up, and the proportion of land acquisition in the top three lines increased throughout the year. In 2021, the land acquisition amount of the company was 185.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%; The land acquisition area was 27.22 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%. The investment sales ratio of amount and area were 34.7% and 81.7% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1pct and 11.8pct respectively. The equity ratio of amount caliber was 72.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1pct. In December, the land acquisition amount of the company was 28.08 billion yuan, a month on month increase of nearly three times, a year-on-year decrease of 51.7%. Since August, with the cooling of market demand, the company has been cautious in land acquisition. The land acquisition intensity according to the monthly amount is within 55%, and the land acquisition intensity recovered in December, reaching 131.8%. From the perspective of urban energy level distribution, the proportion of land acquisition amount of the first, second and third lines is 11.2%, 45.3% and 43.5% respectively, and the proportion of the first and second lines is 15 PCT lower than that of last year; In terms of regional distribution, it is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta (33.4%), Dawan district (14.7%), the West Bank of the Strait (9.8%), Beijing Tianjin Hebei (8.4%) and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration (7.2%), accounting for 73.5%.
Financial stability, three red lines to maintain the green file. As of the third quarter of 2021, the company’s interest bearing liabilities were 341 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%; Monetary capital was 132.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The company’s asset liability ratio after deducting advance receipts was 65.62%, basically unchanged year-on-year; The net debt ratio was 67.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3pct; The cash short-term debt ratio was 2.32, a year-on-year increase of 0.4, with strong short-term solvency.
Investment suggestion: Although the performance is under pressure due to the decline of short-term gross profit margin, the accelerated settlement of low gross profit projects obtained in the early stage is more conducive to the repair of gross profit margin in the later stage. Considering the company’s financial stability, stable sales growth, active land acquisition at the end of the year despite the overall decline in industry investment, and the recent document issued by the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission to support real estate enterprise project M & A, we believe that the improvement of the company’s market share in the future will drive the growth of scale and performance. We lowered the profit forecast according to the company’s performance express, and predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 would be RMB 275.8/2842/29.34 billion, with growth rates of – 4.7% / 3.1% / 3.2% respectively. The dynamic PE in 2021 / 2022 is 7.15/6.94x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the settlement progress is less than expected. The gross profit margin fell more than expected. Industry and financing policies tightened more than expected.
