Events
The National Bureau of statistics released the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2022 on April 18. According to the preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Key investment points
Key investment points
1. Overall evaluation of the economic data in the first quarter: mixed, worries outweigh joy, and structural differentiation.
2. GDP grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, which increased significantly and decreased in real terms, and the economic downside risk was highlighted again.
3. The growth rate of generalized infrastructure construction exceeded 10%, showing a unique performance, and the investment in electric power and water conservancy maintained a high growth.
4. The performance of industrial production is not poor, with a slight pick-up in the first quarter, but we should be vigilant against the industrial chain and supply chain risks caused by the epidemic.
5. Manufacturing investment increased by 15.6% year-on-year, and the high level fell slightly. Pay attention to the expected changes of enterprises.
6. The export increased by 13.4% year-on-year, the toughness remained and operated at a high level, but the month on month worries began to appear.
7. The growth rate of investment in real estate development was 0.7%, and the epidemic made the road to the bottom of real estate more tortuous.
8. The effect of the Spring Festival cannot withstand the impact of the epidemic. The social zero growth rate in the first quarter was 3.3%, which turned negative again in March.
9. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine superimposed the impact of the epidemic, highlighted the lack of domestic demand, and the import growth turned negative in March.
In October and March, the unemployment rate soared to 5.8%, far higher than the target of less than 5.5%, and the situation of stabilizing employment and ensuring people's livelihood is grim.
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale outbreak of geo conflict
