Investment value outlook of wind power industry: 1) macro environment: affected by multiple macro adverse factors, the equity market continues to weaken. The expected impact of repeated outbreaks in China, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the US dollar interest rate hike and contraction will continue to ferment, but the continuous implementation of the steady growth policy and the recent RRR reduction signal may boost the confidence of the equity market. 2) Performance: during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the growth rate of China's wind power installed capacity will maintain double digits, among which offshore wind power has broad prospects. The decline of subsidies may lead to the weakening of installed capacity in 21 years; However, considering that onshore wind power has achieved parity on the Internet, wind turbine products continue to help reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the carbon trading market may be launched within the year, the profitability of wind power projects is expected to increase instead of decrease. 3) Valuation: the valuation center continued to rise in the first three quarters of 2021, but the index valuation weakened after the fourth quarter due to the market's concern about the decline of subsidies; Over the past 22 years, the downward bidding price of the whole machine and the lower than expected local subsidies have exacerbated market concerns. However, with the introduction of the "14th five year plan" energy plan, the wind power industry is expected to usher in valuation repair. 4) Tracking target: at present, mainstream fund companies are actively laying out the wind power track, and a total of 10 fund companies have applied for the establishment of wind power theme ETF.
Core logic of each industry segment:
1) wind power components: mainly focus on the technical barriers and parts with relatively high gross profit margin in the industry, such as bearings, submarine cables, etc; Domestic substitution is still the main development line of China's bearing industry, and the pressure of cost reduction is good for Chinese manufacturers; The development of far-reaching offshore wind power projects will boost demand, and the first mover advantage of leading manufacturers will continue to be realized.
2) wind power complete machine: the trend of large-scale wind power complete machine is significant. Leading enterprises with manufacturing technology of 5MW and above wind turbines are expected to integrate the market again; After the rush loading tide, the profitability of wind turbine products is prominent, and reducing cost and increasing efficiency is the key point of the game in the next stage; At present, the valuation level of complete machine manufacturers is low, so we can pay attention to the leading enterprises of wind turbines.
3) wind power operation: there is no obvious competitive relationship between existing wind power projects, and the power generation is connected to the Internet and consumed smoothly; At the current bidding price level, the internal rate of return of onshore wind power projects is higher, and high-quality wind farm resources are more precious; The full parity of offshore wind power on the Internet still needs the continuous efforts of the whole industrial chain to reduce costs, and Guangdong Province will be the leader of the national sea wind parity project.
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk, monetary policy and liquidity risk, wind power installed capacity is less than expected, etc.
