From January to March this year, the real estate chain data is still in a deep recession, which is worse than that in the previous February.
Real estate investment was -2.4% in March and 3.7% in January February. The rebound in real estate investment at the beginning of the year was short-lived.
The land purchase level under the real estate de financialization will continue to be deeply adjusted (- 41.8%), and the drag on medium-term real estate investment will still appear.
After new construction (- 17.5%), land purchase and other real estate front-end indicators continued to weaken, it has also dragged down the construction (1%) and completion (- 11.5%) of the later cycle.
Due to the weak sales of the real estate market, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 250.4 billion yuan year-on-year in March, and the end purchase funds of residents dragged down the source of funds of real estate enterprises the most (- 27%).
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the property market policy has bottomed out, but due to the disturbance of sudden factors such as geographical situation and epidemic situation since this year, it has once again suppressed the real estate market. However, based on the leading relationship between past policies and liquidity on the real estate chain data, the real estate data is expected to stabilize and rebound weakly from the fourth quarter to the end of the year.
According to the high-frequency data, due to the weakening of expectations and the disturbance of the epidemic, the decline of sales area in 30 large and medium-sized cities further expanded in the first half of April, with a decline of more than 50%. In the later stage, we will further keep track of high-frequency data such as sales and soil photography.
On the whole, based on the real estate enterprises' land storage in hand, the current land pushing speed of the government and the cooling of the land market, the current data performance similar to "stall" will remain for some time. In the later stage, the real estate sub city policy will be relaxed, especially the policy of promoting the sales of the real estate market will still be overweight. Real estate sales is the leading indicator of investment, new construction and other data. We will pay close attention to whether the real estate sales data can reach the bottom and stabilize and recover under the promotion of sustainable policy combination.
