China's GDP growth picked up in the first quarter of 2022, but the recovery momentum is not stable. In the second quarter of this year, China's economic growth has the risk of double bottoming. This risk comes not only from the new round of supply shock caused by the epidemic, but also from the pressure of shrinking demand and weakening expectations that have not been effectively alleviated.
At present, China's economy needs not only to stabilize expectations, but also to prevent the self realization of pessimistic expectations and prevent the situation of the real estate industry from spreading to the whole macro-economy. At present, the expectation of the real estate industry has turned into pessimism, and a vicious circle of self realization of pessimism has been formed. In this cycle, the rise of real estate developers' credit risk and the decline of external confidence in the real estate industry strengthen each other.
With the emergence of the risk of economic double dip, policy response needs to be more targeted and efficient, so as to strive to achieve the GDP growth target of 5.5% this year. Epidemic prevention and control is the top priority at present. In addition to epidemic prevention and control, macro policies also need to be further relaxed. At present, it is necessary to continue to promote the policy correction of real estate and infrastructure, especially to break the vicious circle of the real estate industry, let financing fully flow into the real estate industry and drive the stabilization and recovery of real estate investment. Before the channel of social finance flowing to the real economy cannot be opened up, the introduction of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction needs to be cautious.
