The economic data fell sharply in March, highlighting the downward pressure on the economy, but the response of the equity market was very different from that when the data from January to February was released, which was much higher than expected. Compared with that time, the biggest characteristics of the official data in March are two similarities: first, most of the data, including GDP, are in line with market expectations and our continuous observation and micro feedback on high-frequency data; Second, there is still a certain gap between a small number of data and unofficial statistics, but the marginal changes of data from all parties are basically consistent.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the sharp decline in March data itself is within the observation and expectation of the market, and the cognitive fit between the official and the market reduces the confusion and doubts of the market about data interpretation and even policy prospects, which is what we will focus on.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation in China exceeded expectations; The Fed tightened more than expected; The downside risk of real estate is higher than expected
