Key investment points
LG new energy: turning losses into profits in 2021, the market share decreased slightly year-on-year, and the growth rate is expected to slow down in 2022. In 2021, the revenue was about 100.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36%; The operating profit was 5.5 billion yuan, turning losses into profits. The company’s Q4 revenue in 2021 was about 26.5 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 7.1% / + 10.2%; The operating profit was about 450 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 49% / – 70%. We expect that the company’s total capacity will be 165gwh by the end of 2021 and more than 425gwh by 2025. The company expects to achieve revenue of 26.3 billion yuan in Q1 in 2022, with a month on month ratio of + 2.1% / – 2.2%; The operating profit was 1.57 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 24.1% / + 242%, and the operating profit margin was 5.96%. The company expects the revenue to reach 116.4 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 8%. If the impact of one-time revenue in 2021 is deducted, the revenue is expected to be + 14%.
Samsung SDI: the performance will grow steadily in 2021, and the growth rate is expected to slow down in 2022. In 2021, the revenue was about 82.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20%; The operating profit was 6.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 59%. Q4’s revenue in 2021 was about 23.13 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 17.4% / + 10.9%; The operating profit was about 1.61 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 8.0% / – 28.9%; The net profit was about 2.37 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 14.5% / – 6.9%. The company expects that in 2022, Q1 sales revenue will increase year-on-year and profitability will also improve. In 2022, the company will continue to expand the supply of high value-added gen.5 batteries. At the same time, the company will continue to develop the next generation gen.6 platform, expand the second plant in Hungary and ensure the development of new bases in the United States. In the future, the company will focus on providing maximum energy density through the use of high nickel cathode materials and silicon cathode materials, and plans to use Cobalt Free cathode materials and replace cobalt with manganese to reduce material costs.
Ski: revenue increased sharply in 2021, but profit and loss expanded. Q4 in 2022 is expected to turn loss into profit. In 2021, the revenue of the battery sector was 18.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 90.92%; The operating profit was -4.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year loss of + 60.16%. In 2021, the revenue of Q4 power battery was 6.464 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 114.5% / + 30.6%; The operating profit reached -1.878 billion yuan, with a loss of + 184.48% / + 213.88% on a month on month basis, mainly due to the increase in the operating costs of the first phase of the US plant and the second phase of the Hungarian plant, as well as the increase in R & D and one-time expenditure. Due to strong customer demand, the company expects the battery sales volume to reach 36.364 billion yuan in 2022, and the pre tax profit of Q4 will become positive in 2022. In terms of production capacity, the company plans to produce 77gwh by the end of 2022 and increase the annual output of batteries to 220gwh by 2025.
Panasonic: in 2021, the revenue increased steadily, the profit increased significantly, the construction of large cylindrical production capacity accelerated, and the growth rate is expected to slow down in 2022. In 2021, the revenue of power battery was 36.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.2%; The operating profit was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 275.8%. The revenue of Energy Department of 2021q4 company was RMB 12.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 66.8%; The operating profit was 1.14 billion yuan, turning losses into profits. In terms of capacity, the expansion of factories in the United States has been completed, with a capacity of 39gwh. By the end of 2021, the company’s global power battery capacity was about 89gwh. In 2022, the company announced a new 10gwh battery factory in Wakayama, Japan, which mainly produces 4680 large cylindrical batteries for Tesla. It is expected to complete the verification and mass production by the end of the year 23 and the beginning of the year 24.
Investment suggestion: the valuation of electric vehicles has fallen back to the bottom, the high outlook continues in 2022, and Chinese battery enterprises are rising. In 2022, the overall elasticity is greater. We expect to maintain a high increase of 80-100% in the leading performance, and continue to look at the electric vehicle leaders in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link repaired with profit in 2022. The long-term pattern is good, with superimposed energy storage holdings. We recommend the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , The second main line is the battery technology upgrade, the high nickel ternary (recommended for Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) ), additives (recommended Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); Article 3: leading enterprises in continuous shortage: diaphragm (recommended Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568)
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected, the price competition is higher than expected, the investment growth rate is declining, etc.
