Resumption 2020: the “housing economy” gives birth to sector opportunities, and the performance is differentiated after returning to work and production. (1) Market performance: during the period of strict control, the excess return of leisure food was prominent. Taking April 8 as the dividing point, the first half of leisure snacks deduces the theme investment of “housing economy” and the second half deduces the “replenishment boom”, which shows differentiation in the internal performance of the sector. (2) Performance: ① income growth: leisure food showed the property of just demand during the epidemic. Qiaqia, Taoli, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) and Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) all recorded double-digit or more revenue growth. Among them, Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) single quarter revenue growth rate exceeded 35%, continuing the high growth trend after the annual report exceeded expectations. Qiaqia’s Q1 revenue grew by 10%, of which online channels contributed significantly, contract liabilities (original advances received) increased to a record high month on month, and the replenishment boom supported the acceleration of Q2 revenue growth. ① Profit growth: the stability of offline channels is strong, and the decline of sales expense rate releases profit elasticity. Qiaqia, Taoli, Yanjin and Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) have higher growth rate of net profit attributable to their parents than that of the revenue side. Among them, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) with online channels as the main channels, the growth rate of net profit attributable to their parents showed a double-digit decline due to increased investment in expenses.
Benchmarking 2020: the same home scene, different channels and structures. (1) Time point: the epidemic broke out after the Spring Festival, and this round mainly affected the off-season of Q2. Except peach and plum, the income proportion of Qiaqia, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) and Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) Q2 was the lowest in the whole year, and the impact of the epidemic was relatively controllable in the whole year. (2) Regions and channels: Online dividends are difficult to show, and the offline impact is more complex due to different channel blocking points. ① Online: the logistics end of this round of epidemic is not smooth, the delivery end is blocked, and some online consumption scenes are missing, so it is difficult to reproduce the online dividend of 2020q1. ② Offline: this round of epidemic involves a wide range of areas, consumer behavior is different from the expected track, and the transmission path is more complex. The logistics impact in areas with serious epidemic situation is relatively large, and the derived form of “community group purchase” will cover the loss of off-line channel passenger flow to a certain extent; The areas with mild epidemic but expected to rush will increase the demand for goods hoarding through supermarkets and supermarkets, and the brands with national layout will benefit more. (3) Costs and expenses: there is a large gap between categories, and the price increase transmits or effectively covers the cost pressure. The cost reduction during the epidemic is expected to bring profit elasticity.
Interpretation 2022: the bottom of the layout, select the target. The interpretation of this round of snack food may be differentiated, and the logic of “house economy” has been deduced. In the later stage, we will focus on the elasticity of replenishment. According to the PE valuation corresponding to the consensus expectation of wind in 2022, Qiaqia / Taoli / Three Squirrels Inc(300783) / Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) / Yanjin / Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) / Ganyuan / JINZI are 27 / 24 / 18 / 29 / 27 / 32 / 22 / 32 times respectively, which is larger than the top in 2020. Based on the highest, lowest and average valuation levels since 2018, at present, leisure food has entered the bottom layout stage, with large potential elastic space.
Investment suggestion: referring to the market deduction in 2020 and considering the disturbance of multiple variables such as channels, logistics and costs, the leader of leisure snacks Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , which has relatively strong certainty, is recommended to pay attention to Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) , which has a smooth valuation repair logic and is expanding against the trend in East China, Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) and Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , which is driven by the dual drive of new products and new channels.
Risk tip: there is a risk of repeated epidemic, the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected, and the competition pattern is at risk of deterioration.
