Overall view: in early April, IEA prepared to release reserves collectively, adding to the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory, and the international oil price fell sharply; After Russia Ukraine negotiations reached an impasse, and OPEC decided not to increase production, the international oil price fluctuated and rose. In the field of transportation, the price of refined oil has been lowered for the first time since 2022, and the terminal demand is weak; In the field of real estate, soda ash prices continued to be strong, gross profit rose, and glass destocking was poor; In the infrastructure industry chain, the gross profit of asphalt and PVC increased, and the inventory continued to increase; In the field of textile and clothing, the overall loss of polyester filament, and enterprises successively reduced production; In the field of agriculture, the gross profit of glyphosate stopped falling, and the price of urea fell slightly.
Oil price: the oil price dropped first and then rebounded with shock, and the shock amplitude decreased. In the first week of April (3.31-4.6), IEA prepared to release reserves collectively, superimposed the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory, and the international oil price fell sharply; In the second week (4.7-4.13), the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine reached an impasse, and OPEC decided not to increase production, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose.
Transportation: the price of refined oil has been lowered for the first time since 2022, and the terminal demand is weak. Since 24:00 on April 15, 2022, the price of refined oil in China has been reduced for the first time, with the current round of gasoline reduced by 545 yuan / ton and diesel reduced by 530 yuan / ton. On the demand side, the epidemic situation in many places in China is repeated, the situation in some areas is deteriorating, the traffic control in the region is becoming more and more strict, and the demand for gasoline and diesel terminals is weak. Gasoline and diesel prices fell.
Real estate industry chain: soda ash prices continue to be strong, and glass destocking is poor. The market supply is reduced, the orders of soda ash manufacturers are sufficient, and some manufacturers are reluctant to sell new orders. With the support of multiple benefits, the price of new orders in soda ash market rises slightly. The overall cost of soda ash in China continues to decline, and the profit of soda ash has increased slightly. At present, the average gross profit of soda ash industry has increased slightly to about 924 yuan / ton. Glass prices and gross profit have a downward trend, with poor destocking, less trading volume and poor terminal demand.
Infrastructure industry chain: the gross profit of asphalt and PVC increased, and the inventory continued to increase. In the first half of April 2022, the price of asphalt decreased slightly. Due to the weakening of cost support, the circulation of low-cost resources in the north. The epidemic situation in the south is still severe, the automobile shipment of the main refineries is not smooth, and the overall inventory level is rising. Refinery production costs fell sharply and asphalt gross profit improved. The market price of PVC continued to fall, mainly the price of calcium carbide was reduced, the cost was reduced, and there was still some profit space.
Textile and clothing industry chain: the overall loss of polyester filament, enterprises have reduced production one after another. The polyester filament market fluctuated downward and was in a state of loss as a whole. As of April 14, the average profit level of polyester filament poy150d was -499.6 yuan / ton. Due to the epidemic prevention and control in some regions, it is difficult to circulate the procurement of raw materials and the transportation of finished product inventory, the inventory of filament enterprises is high, and the production is reduced one after another. However, the market demand is sluggish, the market price of filament is difficult to rise synchronously with the price of raw materials, and the gross profit is reduced.
Agricultural industry chain: the gross profit of glyphosate stopped falling, and the price of urea fell slightly. The price of glyphosate stabilized. Some manufacturers offered 6500066000 yuan / ton, and the transaction reference price of 95% raw powder was 62 Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) 00 yuan / ton. The gross profit of glyphosate stopped falling and remained at about 2494145 yuan / ton, which was relatively rich. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, market inventory rose. China’s urea price fell slightly, and the trading of urea market continued to be weak and deadlocked.
