Overall view: this week, China’s centralized projects began to pull, and it is judged that the supply side such as silicon materials remained tight in the second quarter. According to the industrial grassroots research, it is expected that the production scheduling of component leading enterprises will increase by about 20% month on month in April. It is judged that China’s distributed projects will maintain a high boom in the second quarter, and the superimposed centralized projects will be started gradually; Overseas markets, especially in Europe, are expected to continue to increase in demand orders in the second quarter due to the sharp rise in traditional energy prices. From January to February 2022, China’s photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 10.86gw, an increase of 7.61gw year-on-year, mainly driven by distributed projects, and there are still not many centralized projects to start; In terms of exports, the component exports in January and February 2022 were estimated by solarzoom to be 11.32gw and 14.37gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 96% and 102% respectively. It is judged that the significant growth of component exports in January and February was mainly contributed by the Indian and European markets. China’s polysilicon production capacity is expected to increase by about 17% month on month in the second quarter, but due to the ramp up of production capacity, the actual output increased slightly month on month, and the average price of silicon material in the whole year may be higher than the market expectation. The price of silicon material has rebounded slightly since it fell to about 230000 / T at the end of 2021, and the support of silicon material price is higher than expected. It is expected that the actual output of polysilicon will increase slightly in the second quarter, and Q2 is expected to maintain the price of more than 240000. Throughout the year, the silicon material is still in a tight balance or slightly surplus. The decline of silicon material in the whole year may be lower than the previous market expectation, bringing more single ton profits to the upstream silicon material enterprises, The profit of silicon material enterprises is expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . The short-term price disturbance does not change the high prosperity of the medium and long-term industry. It is expected that the global PV installed capacity is expected to reach about 250gw in 2022, China is expected to reach more than 80gw, and the distributed proportion is expected to continue to exceed 50%, maintaining a high growth trend. In 2022, the effective supply of silicon materials will increase by 25 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 tons. After the price of raw materials enters the downward channel, the profits of the industrial chain are expected to transfer to the middle and lower reaches, comprehensively stimulating the downstream demand. At the same time, the investment owners with development resources are also expected to benefit. Continue to be optimistic about the component integration leaders Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Jingke energy, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , which have cost advantages and brand influence. It is recommended to pay attention to Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) ; Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) and inverter manufacturers Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) and so on, which benefit from the high growth of distributed photovoltaic market.
1) the price of silicon material is + 0.8% month on month, and the demand for silicon material is increasing. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the price of dense material this week was 247000 / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.8%. Since the beginning of January 2022, the price of silicon material has rebounded continuously. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the installed capacity projects in China in 2021 have been postponed to the first and second quarters of this year. There is strong demand for installed capacity in overseas regions such as Europe, the operating rate of downstream components and silicon wafer enterprises has been increasing, and the demand for silicon material has increased unabated; 2) There is always a gap between silicon material capacity and silicon wafer capacity; 3) The price of silicon wafer rises and the acceptance of silicon material increases. Looking forward to the follow-up, the silicon wafer operating rate continues to maintain a high level, and the silicon material supply is less than the increment of demand. It is expected that the silicon material price may continue to increase slightly in the short term, and the decline of silicon material price in the whole year may be less than the market expectation.
2) the demand for silicon wafers continued to be strong, and the price of 182 silicon wafers was + 1.9% month on month. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the average price of single crystal 166 / 182 / 210 silicon wafer was about 5.67, 6.83 and 9.00 yuan / wafer, with a month on month increase of 2.2%, 1.9% and 0.6%. The purchase enthusiasm of battery chips is high, and the demand increment is higher than the supply increment of silicon chips. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the operating rate of the two front-line enterprises this week remained at about 80%, the operating rate of integrated enterprises was 90% – 100%, and the operating rate of other enterprises remained at 80% – 100%. According to statistics, China’s silicon wafer production increased to 25.8gw in March, an increase of 11.7% month on month. However, affected by the epidemic, China’s silicon wafer production may decrease by 1-2gw in April. It is judged that under the strong pull of terminal demand, the subsequent silicon wafer price may still rise.
3) battery: the cost conductivity is better than expected, and the cycle to cycle ratio is 0.9%. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the mainstream transaction prices of 166 / 182 / 210 battery chips were about 1.10 yuan / W, 1.155 yuan / W and 1.16 yuan / W respectively, with a month on month increase of 0%, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively; In the case of strong downstream demand and improved component production, the demand for battery chips is also relatively strong, and the rebound of silicon and silicon chips also promotes the demand for battery chips. From the perspective of demand, the transmission cost pressure of the battery chip factory is better than expected, and there is no significant reduction in the operating rate. However, the demand side growth still slows down in the second quarter, and the subsequent battery chip prices are expected to remain stable.
4) components: the price of components has not been significantly adjusted. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, the mainstream transaction prices of 166 / 182 / 210 components this week were 1.87 yuan / W, 1.89 yuan / W and 1.89 yuan / W respectively, unchanged month on month. The price of components generally began to rise in the upstream, and there was no obvious adjustment. However, affected by the price rise in the upstream and the price rise of auxiliary raw materials, some component enterprises are brewing to increase the price. The bidding price of components has increased recently, but it is also necessary to consider the acceptance of the downstream. In terms of hjt components, the price of hjt components fluctuates little, and the mainstream price this week is concentrated between 1.95-2.1 yuan / W.
5) auxiliary materials: the price has not changed this week. This week, the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is 27.5 yuan / m2, and the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 21.15 yuan / m2. The overall demand for float glass is weak, and the manufacturer’s inventory continues to accumulate, but the photovoltaic output is relatively strong, so the photovoltaic glass price is supported; EVA adhesive film maintained at 14.5 yuan / m2 and Poe adhesive film maintained at 16.5 yuan / m2 this week. Affected by the good downstream demand and the rising price of raw materials, the price of adhesive film has increased slightly since last week. From the perspective of raw materials, the operating rate of the soda ash industry this week was 85.64%, down 0.78% month on month. The soda ash inventory this week fell to 1374100 tons, down 39900 tons month on month. The soda ash market is relatively stable. The EVA market continued to pick up this week, and the price of photovoltaic materials rebounded to 23400 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 17% since March.
