The disturbance of the epidemic dragged down the zero growth rate of social security in March. In 2022m3, the total amount of social zero was 3.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.5%; The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 3.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.0%. The total zero amount of 2022q1 is + 3.3% year-on-year (2022m1-m2 is + 6.7% year-on-year); The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 9.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.6%; Excluding price factors, the actual year-on-year growth was 1.3%. According to different channels, the online retail volume of 2022m3 physical goods was 0.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.7%; The online retail sales of physical goods in 2022q1 was 2.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8% (2022m1-m2 was + 13.6%). Online retail sales of 2022m3 physical goods accounted for 26.0% of the total social retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6pp. By category, the top three categories of 2022m3 growth are: beverages (year-on-year + 12.6%, 2022m1-2 year-on-year + 11.4%), Cereals, Oils and foods (year-on-year + 12.5%, 2022m1-2 year-on-year + 7.9%), Chinese and Western medicines (year-on-year + 11.9%, 2022m1-2 year-on-year + 7.5%).
Cultural Office maintained a strong performance, and the growth rate of daily necessities and gold, silver and jewelry turned negative. Accelerated differentiation of furniture industry: 2022m3 year-on-year – 8.8% (2022m1-2 year-on-year – 6.0%). The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 2022q1 furniture was – 7.1%. Affected by the closure and control of the epidemic in many places, the performance of the industry continued to weaken. From March to April, affected by the epidemic, the logistics and door-to-door service were not smooth, resulting in demand or delay. The lagging demand is expected to start to release from May to June. The epidemic has a greater impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, the liquidation of small and medium-sized brands is accelerated, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved. In terms of real estate, the completed and sales area of 2022m3 decreased year-on-year. The completed area of 2022m3 houses was – 15.5% year-on-year, and the sales area of commercial houses was – 17.7% year-on-year. Since the beginning of 2022, the marginal relaxation trend of real estate policy has been obvious. More than 60 cities have introduced stable real estate policies, from relaxing loan requirements, reducing mortgage interest rates to liberalizing the purchase and sale restriction policy. The real estate easing policy has been increasing, and the follow-up real estate sales data is expected to be repaired. Cultural and office supplies continued to grow rapidly: 2022m3 year-on-year + 9.8% (2022m1-2 year-on-year + 11.1%), and the decline in growth was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the school opening progress and the double reduction policy. The growth rate of daily necessities decreased: the growth rate of 2022m3 was – 0.8% (2022m1-2 was + 10.7%) year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 11.5pp month on month. Gold, silver and jewelry are greatly affected by the epidemic: 2022m3 year-on-year -17.9% (2022m1-2 year-on-year +19.5%).
Continue to prompt home sector valuation repair opportunities. Affected by the real estate and epidemic situation, the current valuation of leading companies is below 1x standard deviation in the past five years. We reiterate: 1) under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for furniture will only be delayed and will not disappear; 2) The epidemic has a greater impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, and the industry concentration in the post epidemic repair stage has accelerated; 3) The stock price repair is earlier than the performance repair, and the leading companies have greater repair flexibility. With the relaxation of real estate policy and the gradual control of the epidemic, the valuation of the home sector is expected to continue to repair. [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] (pe24x in 2022) is recommended to consolidate the leading position of integrated high growth; The pioneer of retail reform and the increasingly clear route of big home [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] (pe19x in 2022); [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] (pe13x in 2022) expected to accelerate retail under management improvement and overall strategy; [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] (pe15x in 2022) and the functional sofa leader [Minhua holdings] (pe10x in 2022) with low valuation to accelerate the expansion of independent brands. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ].
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, and the prosperity of the industry decreases. Note: the valuation is as of April 18, 2022.
