Steel:
The epidemic affected the commencement of real estate, the loosening of real estate policies and the gradual easing of the epidemic are expected to continuously improve the demand side. The national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology studied and deployed the reduction of crude steel production in 2022 and proposed to “ensure the year-on-year decline of national crude steel production in 2022”. The supply side is expected to continue to optimize. The inventory is at a low level in recent three years, and the gross profit is down under the rising pressure of raw materials. The supply side of Pugang is expected to continue to be limited in 2022, the demand is stable, the economic determination is strong, and the industry profit center is expected to move up. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the growing special steel field under the import substitution logic.
Industrial metals:
In terms of aluminum, European energy shortage and sanctions against Russia have tightened overseas supply expectations, and China’s supply side is constrained; The inventory end is low; On the price of raw material side, alumina will be at a low level under the expectation of increment / the electricity price will maintain stability under the stable price of coal supply / the prebaked anode will rise; The demand side is guaranteed under the stable economy, new energy and lightweight automobile. It is expected that the aluminum price will run at a high level throughout the year, and the industry will enjoy high profits.
New energy metals:
The overall situation of the lithium industry remains tight. Lithium salt plants and even downstream battery enterprises continue to compete for upstream lithium resources, which also confirms this view from the side. However, under the influence of high price + epidemic demand, there is a game between upstream and downstream. In the short term, the price of electric carbon may be slightly corrected. Lithium hydroxide is expected to remain strong supported by overseas demand, but the overall lithium price remains high, and the high boom of the lithium industry remains unchanged.
Rare earth:
Rare earth prices showed a downward trend, mainly due to: 1 Low market turnover at high prices; 2. The situation in Russia and Ukraine affects the expectation of demand. The transaction at a high price is less than expected, and the supplier rationally reduces the price. In the short term, the price or shock is weak under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Precious metals:
COMEX gold price / SHFE gold price were + 3.15% / + 3.06% month on month. The market believes that the US tightening policy is slower or unable to alleviate inflation, so as to support the price of gold.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ( Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ) for precious metals.
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
