Key investment points:
Recent market review
From March 19, 2022 to April 18, 2022, the CSI 300 fell by 2.33%, the machinery sector fell by 7.98%, outperforming the market by 5.65%, ranking 26th among all the primary industries of Shenwan. The sub industries with better performance among the 19 sub industries are construction machinery, abrasive tools and abrasives, and rail transit equipment. As of April 18, 2022, the industry’s TTM P / E ratio is 11 times (overall method, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 91%.
Review of the overall situation of the machinery industry
In terms of construction machinery, 37085 excavators of various types were sold in March, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%; Among them, 26556 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 63.6%; 10529 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 73.5%. In March, 15309 loaders were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 32.8%. Among them, 11399 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%; The export sales volume was 3910 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.81%. In terms of forklift sales, the sales volume of forklifts in the whole industry in February 2022 was 71373, with a year-on-year increase of 71.3%. From the starting hours of excavators, the starting hours of Komatsu in China in March were seriously affected by the spread of the epidemic in many places in China. The starting hours were 101.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%. The starting hours in other major regions of the world were mixed.
In terms of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) aspect, the fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry increased by 15.6% year-on-year in March. In the main downstream application scenarios, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in automobile manufacturing industry increased slightly by 1.1 percentage points to 12.4%, and the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in 3C industry decreased by 7.3 percentage points to 27.8% compared with the previous February. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of fixed asset investment in downstream manufacturing industry, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) cumulative output in the first March of 2022 was 102496 units, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.
Investment strategy
In terms of construction machinery, the sales volume of excavators in March was about 37100 units, lower than the 40000 units previously predicted by CME. The sales volume was lower than expected, which was mainly affected by the recent situation of multiple outbreaks and rapid growth in China, which had a certain impact on the sales volume of the industry and downstream construction. We believe that the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment from January to march is much higher than the market expectation. Under the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, infrastructure investment will still become the main starting point of economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to the construction machinery faucet Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ), and the core parts manufacturer Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ).
In terms of photovoltaic equipment, the government work report of the two sessions changed the expression of carbon peak from “doing a solid job” to “orderly promotion” in 2021, and proposed that the energy consumption intensity target should be comprehensively assessed within the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility. The new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control. This will effectively alleviate the constraints of dual control of energy consumption on China’s economic growth and accelerate the transformation of clean energy instead of traditional energy. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ( Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ) and Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ( Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ).
Risk warning: risk of epidemic spread; The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; Raw material price fluctuation risk
