\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co.Ltd(002743) 00274)
Event:
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved a revenue of 24.137 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 25.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.01%. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue was 4.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 411 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%.
Comments:
The expense rate of overseas expansion increased, and the provision for impairment reduced the net interest rate
The growth of the company's revenue was basically in line with our expectations, while the net interest rate in 21 years decreased by 3.18pct to 7.06% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of sales expenses, the provision of large assets and credit impairment losses. In the past 21 years, the company has strengthened the construction of overseas sales channels. The salary of sales personnel and the accrued maintenance expenses have increased significantly, and the sales expenses have increased by 62.58% year-on-year; The delayed grid connection of the company's overseas power stations affects the electricity revenue, resulting in an increase in bad debt losses of accounts receivable; Some energy storage projects were not delivered in time, resulting in an increase in the impairment loss of contract performance costs. The company has withdrawn a total of 480 million yuan of assets and credit impairment losses in 21 years, which dragged down the performance.
The global inverter leader actively expanded its production and further increased its market share
Inverter shipments increased by 34% year-on-year, accounting for more than 30% of the global market in 21 years (27% in 20 years). In October 2021, the company raised 3.6 billion yuan to build 100gw new energy power generation equipment capacity. It is expected that the capacity of photovoltaic inverter in 23 years will be 1.8 times larger than that in 21 years, that of wind power converter will be 2.4 times larger and that of energy storage converter will be 2.7 times larger. With strong downstream demand and sufficient orders on hand, the company is expected to enhance the scale effect, further improve the market share and consolidate the global leading position.
Energy storage business takes over and opens the second growth curve
In 21 years, the delivery volume of the company's energy storage system reached 3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 275%, and the revenue of energy storage business increased by 169%. According to xinlune information, in February 22 years ago, China's output of energy storage cells increased by 60% year-on-year. It is expected that the energy storage industry will continue to have a high outlook in the future. The company's energy storage business adheres to the cell free strategy and focuses on giving full play to the advantages of power control transformation, safety management and system integration, which can avoid the risks brought by cell technology iteration. In the future, it will take over the photovoltaic inverter and become a new driving force for the company's performance growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is expected that the supply of raw materials will remain tight in the future, and the company will continue to increase investment in overseas sales channels and R & D. we lowered the profit forecast. It is expected that the company's revenue in 20222023 will be 38.1/49.6 billion yuan (original value: 37.3/49.3 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.3/46 billion yuan (original value: 4.1/54 billion yuan), and the profit forecast for 24 years will be 62.6 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6 billion yuan, and EPS will be 2.23/3.10/4.04 yuan / share respectively, The corresponding PE is 40 / 29 / 22 times. Referring to the current valuation level of comparable companies, we give the company 50 times PE in 22 years, with a target price of 111.5 yuan and a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Overseas policy risks affect the overseas sales of products; The global PV installation is less than expected; Energy storage accidents affect downstream safety requirements.
