\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Key investment points
Bad debt provision is light, and we look forward to the improvement of performance in 22 years
1) 2021a: the company achieved an operating income of 10.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.84%, and 21q4 achieved an income of 3.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.96%; In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19.81%, and in 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 11 million yuan. Due to the default of due commercial acceptance bills by some fine decoration business customers, the company made provision for bad debt impairment of accounts receivable and bills totaling 778 million yuan in 2021, including 660 million yuan of bad debt related to Evergrande. If the impact of bad debt provision is restored, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.984 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 19.48%; 21q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 663 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.32% (assuming a tax rate of 15%). The company made a one-time provision for Evergrande’s bad debts and looked forward to the improvement of the company’s performance in 22 years. 2) 22q1: the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.47%. The Q1 performance of the company was slightly lower than expected, which was mainly affected by the local epidemic, the consumer demand, the rise of raw material prices and the completion and delivery of real estate. According to ovicloud data, the online / offline retail volume of 21q1 range hood was – 4.36% / – 26.38% year-on-year respectively.
The leading advantages of traditional categories have been expanded, and the emerging categories have grown at a high speed
Benefiting from the trend of consumption upgrading, the leading advantages of traditional smoke stoves have been expanded. In 2021, the company recorded operating revenue of range hood / gas stove / disinfection cabinet products of RMB 48.80/24.40/544 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.73% / + 27.25% / – 2.65% respectively. In 2021, the company’s revenue of tobacco stoves and consumer products accounted for 77.49%, a decrease of 3.53 PCT compared with the same period last year. Benefiting from the upgrading of consumption and the sinking of new retail channels, the company’s leading advantages in traditional categories have been expanded. In 2021, the company’s share of online / offline retail sales of range hoods was 18.05% / 27.75% respectively, an increase of 1.99 PCT / 3.20 PCT respectively compared with 2020 (ovicloud).
The income of all-in-one machine and dishwasher increased rapidly, and the company grasped the rapid growth trend of emerging kitchen electricity. The company’s all-in-one machine / dishwasher / water heater products recorded an operating revenue of 647 / 451 / 155 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.26% / + 101.32% / + 172.57% respectively. In 2021, the share of offline retail sales of all-in-one machine / dishwasher / water heater was 34.8% / 17.5% respectively, increasing by 3.3 PCT / 7.9 PCT respectively, and all-in-one machine and dishwasher ranked first and second in the offline retail market (ovicloud). The cost of raw materials is rising, and the company’s profit is under slight pressure
Gross profit margin: the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 52.35%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81 PCT. The comprehensive gross profit margin of 21q4 was 43.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.44 PCT, and the gross sales difference decreased by 3.26 PCT year-on-year. 22q1’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 52.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.78 PCT, and the gross sales difference decreased by 1.60 PCT year-on-year. In the case of rising raw material prices, the company’s profitability is under pressure. Considering that the raw material prices of household appliance enterprises are usually deferred for 1-2 quarters from the statement end, the performance pressure of 21q4 and 22q1 is the most obvious. The company hedges the cost risk by raising the price of products and preparing materials in advance to increase inventory.
Net interest rate attributable to the parent company: the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 13.12%. If the impact of withdrawing bad debts is restored, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 19.55%. Affected by the price of raw materials, the company reduced the cost of 21h2 and significantly reduced the investment of sales expenses. The sales expense rate of 21h2 company was 20.34%, down 9.03 PCT from 21h1. The net profit margin of the company’s 22q1 parent company was 17.63%, and the sales expense rate increased by 15.60 PCT month on month compared with 21q4. The company opened the dishwasher festival in March and released the boss integrated stove. At present, the new products are in the popularization stage, and the sales expense rate has increased.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company’s emerging categories have entered the high growth track, and the leading position of traditional smoke stove consumption is stable. The company’s one-time provision for Evergrande’s bad debts is light, and its performance has great upward flexibility. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 2.190/27.00/3.174 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 64.47% / 23.27% / 17.56% and corresponding PE of 13X / 11x / 9x respectively. Give the company 17 times PE in 22 years, target price of 39.23 yuan in 21 years, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; Consumer demand is less than expected; Macroeconomic downturn
