\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co.Ltd(002743) 00274)
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 24.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.01%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 78 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.73%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.11 yuan per share (including tax).
The company also released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 4.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.48%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 411 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.26% and a month on month increase of 426.92%. The sales volume of photovoltaic inverter maintains a high growth, and the global market share is expected to increase to 32% in 2022. In 2021, the company will ship about 47gw of photovoltaic inverters (18gw in China / 29gw overseas); Among them, 400000 household inverters were shipped; The high increase in shipments led to a year-on-year increase in the operating revenue of the company’s photovoltaic inverter business by 20.44% to 9.051 billion yuan. However, due to the rising cost of raw materials (mainly due to the shortage of IGBT), the gross profit margin of photovoltaic inverter decreased by 1.23 PCT to 33.80% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, we expect that the company will ship about 70gw of photovoltaic inverters (12gw in 2022q1 and 22q2 are expected to maintain), and the market share will further increase from 30% in 2021 to 32%.
Actively explore the household photovoltaic market, and the installed scale of household photovoltaic is expected to be further improved in 2022. In 2021, the company’s power station investment and development business realized an operating revenue of 9.679 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.65%, mainly due to the company’s increased development of the household market. The annual installed capacity of sunshine home photovoltaic increased by more than 500% to 1.2gw year-on-year. The company continued to improve its project management and risk control capabilities and preferred power station projects. The profitability of superimposed household PV was relatively good, and the gross profit margin increased by 2.42 PCT to 11.91% year-on-year. In 2022, the company plans to realize the installed scale of household PV exceeding 3gw, and the income of power station investment and development business is expected to maintain a high growth.
Energy storage growth is bright, and the space is broad under the background of carbon neutralization. In 2021, the global shipment volume of the company’s energy storage system reached 3gwh, and the energy storage business realized an operating revenue of 3.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 168.51%; After the increase of revenue scale, the proportion of shipments of the company’s energy storage system increased, superimposed with the rise of raw material prices, and the gross profit margin decreased by 7.86 PCT to 14.11% year-on-year. According to the white paper 2021 on energy storage industry research, the company’s energy storage shipments have ranked first for five consecutive years. In the future, on the one hand, the company will continue to develop the R & D and promotion of household and industrial and commercial energy storage system products, on the other hand, it will make use of the company’s experience and stock market advantages in the synergy between power generation side energy storage end and new energy, so as to realize the sustained and rapid growth of energy storage business income and profit scale.
Maintain the “buy” rating: the company’s inverter products and energy storage products related raw material prices remain high (IGBT and cell), resulting in pressure on the company’s profit. We lowered the company’s profit forecast for 2022 / 23 and introduced the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 2.874/4.022/4.945 billion (down 27% / down 23% / new), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.93/2.71/3.33, and the current share price will be 47 / 33 / 27 times that of PE in 22-24 years. The company’s overseas inverter sales will still maintain a high-speed growth trend, adding the growth space brought by the energy storage business. We are still optimistic about the company’s long-term development and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the PV installation and overseas market expansion are not as expected; The shortage of raw materials such as IGBT and cell leads to the increase of cost or the delivery of order is less than expected; The risk of declining profits due to increased competition.
