\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
After 21 years of stable ending, 22q1 is still bright under the epidemic. The company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. The revenue of 21 years was 4.478 billion yuan (YoY + 57.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan (YoY + 160.6%). 22q1 achieved a revenue of 1.286 billion yuan (YoY + 35.2%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 74 million yuan (YoY + 129.6%), which is close to the upper limit of the forecast range. In the case of epidemics in Jilin, Shanghai and other places, the company's performance is still bright.
The cheese business grew steadily and the business structure continued to improve. By category, the revenue of cheese business in 21 years was 3.33 billion yuan (YoY + 60.8%). The company firmly implemented the overall strategy of "focusing on cheese", and the proportion of cheese revenue increased to 74.6% (YoY + 1.7pct). The company launched normal temperature cheese sticks to help create the second growth curve. The revenue of instant nutrition series maintained a high growth of 2.51 billion yuan (YoY + 70.8%), and the revenue of other cheese products was 820 million yuan (YoY + 36.3%); The revenue of liquid milk business is 430 million yuan (YoY + 4.0%), and the revenue of trade business is 704 million yuan (YoY + 97.0%), which is optimized in the direction of high gross profit products such as milk powder. The revenue of 22q1 cheese business was 1.04 billion yuan (+ 49.6%), and the growth rate in a single quarter increased month on month since 21q3, with the proportion of revenue increased by 7.8pct to 81.2% year-on-year.
The gross profit margin increased, the expense rate was diluted, and the profitability improved steadily. The gross profit margin of 21 years and 22q1 were 38.2% (YoY + 2.3pct) and 38.8% (YoY + 0.1pct) respectively. The increase of the proportion of cheese business promoted the rise of gross profit margin. 22q1 sales expense ratio is 24.8% (yoy-1.2pct), the management expense ratio (excluding R & D expenses) is 6.7% (yoy-0.1pct), the revenue is high, and the diluted expense ratio is high. Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 sales was 6.3% (YoY + 2.1pct), and the profitability was improved.
Structural upgrading and channel construction are expected to achieve each other, and we are optimistic about the post epidemic growth curve. The company adjusted the implementation contents of some raised investment projects, concentrated advantageous resources and expanded the production capacity of cheese sticks and other high gross margin products; On the basis of consolidating the basic model, the low-temperature cheese stick has been continuously upgraded, and the gold and 0 added cheese stick have been launched in 21 years; At the same time, it took the lead in launching the normal temperature cheese stick in 21 years, and 22q1 launched the new normal temperature small cheese milk cheese stick; The 22-year plan to start the nutritional breakfast project will launch a variety of high-end cheese slices, and the upgrading trend of cheese structure is firm. At the end of the 21st century, the company's sales network covered about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) retail terminals, and its channels covered more than 96% of prefecture level cities and more than 85% of county-level cities in China; Under the influence of the 22q1 epidemic, new retail channels such as e-commerce and group purchase have become important growth poles. Normal temperature products break the cold chain restrictions and can promote and help each other with intensive cultivation of channels. During the epidemic period, turn danger into opportunity and be optimistic about the post epidemic growth curve of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Raise the revenue and expense ratio and reduce the gross profit margin. It is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 0.85 yuan, 1.46 yuan and 2.09 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 1.35 yuan and 2.12 yuan). We continued the FCFF valuation method, calculated the equity value of the company as 26.8 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 51.87 yuan, and maintained the buy rating.
Risk tip: there is a risk that industry competition intensifies, consumption upgrading is lower than expected, and revenue growth is lower than expected.
