\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 009 Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) )
Core view:
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual revenue was 3.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 151 million yuan (excluding 88 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 146.77% (excluding 181976%). Profit distribution plan: distribute cash of 0.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
The report quality has room for optimization, and the profitability is expected to continue to improve.
During the reporting period, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company’s sales were 19.72% and 3.70% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.14 and 1.29 percentage points, and the expense rate during the sales period was 15.03%, which remained relatively stable; Roe (weighted) was 7.26%, a significant increase of 4.10 percentage points year-on-year, and the overall profitability of the company was improved to a certain extent. During the reporting period, the company’s cash receipt ratio was 69.76%, a slight increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, but the net cash received was 91 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.84%, mainly due to the increase of payment collection in the form of bills, prepayment, inventory and other factors. During the reporting period, the company’s asset liability ratio decreased slightly to 64.67% year-on-year, which is still at a relatively reasonable level. The current ratio and quick ratio are 1.15/0.86 respectively, showing an overall improvement trend.
The company recently released the performance forecast of 2022q1. It is estimated that the net profit is 85 ~ 95 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 110.98% ~ 135.81%, deducting non net profit of 70 ~ 80 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90.97 ~ 118.25%. We judge that under the background of high market prosperity, the company’s profitability is expected to continue to improve with the release of the capacity of the company’s lithium battery recycling sector.
Lithium battery recycling business welcomes the rapid expansion period and opens up long-term growth space.
During the reporting period, the company’s lithium battery recycling business revenue was 896 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 214.07% and a gross profit margin of 35.68%. It is the business segment with the fastest revenue growth and the strongest profitability. Tianqi jintaige, a subsidiary of the company responsible for lithium battery recycling, produced 1887 gold tons of cobalt, 1024 gold tons of nickel, 436 gold tons of manganese and 1792 tons of lithium carbonate in 2021. The average metal recovery rate of cobalt, manganese and nickel is 98%, and the average recovery rate of lithium is 85%, ranking the leading level in the industry. It is expected that with the gradual promotion of production expansion and technological transformation, the overall capacity of the company’s lithium battery cycle sector will be 9000 gold tons of cobalt, manganese and nickel and 4000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2022; In 2023, the total amount of cobalt, manganese and nickel is 12000 tons of gold and 5000 tons of lithium carbonate. The company also announced that it will build a new lithium iron phosphate recovery and treatment capacity of 150000 tons / year in 2022, of which the first phase of the project will have a treatment capacity of 50000 tons / year. By 2023, Tianqi jintaige will form a treatment capacity of 100000 tons of waste lithium batteries. The continuous expansion of the company’s lithium battery recovery business will open long-term growth space for the company.
The company is committed to building a waste lithium battery “Internet plus recycling” platform, through the deep binding of battery companies, battery users, recycling enterprises and related financial, technology, service companies, etc., to build the waste lithium battery recycling service network covering the whole country, and provide raw material protection for the lithium battery recycling business. The company has recently signed cooperation agreements with FAW, jd.com and Xingheng power supply, and the platform construction is becoming more and more perfect, constantly enabling lithium battery recycling channels.
Strategic layout of the whole life cycle of automobile, coordinated development and obvious comprehensive advantages
The company is committed to serving the whole life cycle of automobile. In addition to lithium battery recycling business, intelligent equipment business and recycling equipment are deeply rooted in the automobile industry chain. It has a prominent position in automobile intelligent equipment, automobile lending, scrap equipment and other related fields. It has established a stable and close cooperative relationship with well-known automobile brands at home and abroad. Resources in the automobile industry will become an important boost to the company’s lithium battery recycling business. The diversification and coordination of the industrial chain will also enhance the company’s comprehensive competitive advantage.
Valuation analysis and rating description
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 353 million, RMB 527 million and RMB 698 million respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 18 times, 12 times and 9.0 times respectively. Lithium battery recycling is in a rapid growth period and is covered for the first time. It is rated as “recommended”.
Risk tips:
The company’s lithium battery recovery capacity is less than expected, and the profitability of other businesses is less than expected.
