\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
The performance meets the express report and maintains the "overweight" rating
Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) 2021q4 revenue was 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. Due to the impact of the epidemic, we lowered the profit forecast for 2022 and 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.0 (- 0.5), 380 (- 0.5) and 460 million, EPS will be RMB 1.36, 1.74 and 2.11, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 25.0, 19.6 and 16.2 times Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) has brand, channel and scale advantages in the existing key regions. It has steadily expanded from East China to the national market and maintained the "overweight" rating.
The revenue increased steadily and the national expansion continued to advance
(1) by product: the revenue of dairy beverage 2021q4 increased by 15.4% year-on-year, and the new products performed well; (2) In terms of distribution channels, the revenue of distribution channels in 2021q4 was 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; The revenue from direct sales channels was 10.666 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%; (3) In terms of subregions, the three key regions of East China, central China and southwest China increased steadily in 2021q4, with revenue of 212 million yuan, 84 million yuan and 68 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, 18.8% and 28.9%. The company continued its regional expansion, and the growth rate of peripheral markets was rapid. For example, the revenue of North China, South China, northeast and northwest increased by 55.9%, 142.3%, 93.1% and 123.2% respectively year-on-year. In 2021, the company will launch new products such as zero fat lactic acid bacteria beverage and fruit and vegetable beverage. In 2022, the company plans to launch aseptic filling large fruit yogurt milk beverage, sports nutrition food and other products to further improve the product structure. Looking forward to the future, large single products will grow steadily, new products will contribute to the increment, the national expansion will continue to promote, the production capacity will be further released, and the company's revenue can still grow rapidly.
The decrease of net profit margin was mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin and the increase of sales expense rate
In 2021q4, the net profit margin of the company decreased by 3.3pct to 16.3%, mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials such as large package powder and packaging materials, and the decrease in the gross profit margin by 3.5pct to 33.6%. 2021q4 is still in the period of regional expansion. The company needs to invest in developing the market, and the sales expense rate increased by 2.5pct to 11.5%. Looking forward to 2022, there is still upward pressure on raw materials, but the company can alleviate the upward pressure on costs through direct price increase, product structure upgrading and other ways; During the market development period, the sales rate is expected to remain high. At present, the income of Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) North China, northeast, northwest and South China accounts for about 6.8%, which is still small. In the future, the company will continue to deeply cultivate the base market, explore new channels such as small catering, and lay out all channels, which is still in the golden period of development.
Risk tips: capacity expansion is less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
