\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 650950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 174% – 300%, exceeding market expectations. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 650950 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 174% – 300% and a month on month increase of 8% – 58%. The median performance was 800 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 237.55% and a month on month increase of 32.89%. The performance exceeded market expectations. Among them, the volume of automobile business is rising, and the capacity utilization rate of mobile phone parts and assembly business is low due to the weak demand of the industry. We expect the profit to be under pressure in the short term.
Q1 company’s sales volume increased strongly, and the high growth of annual sales volume can be expected. The company announced to stop production of fuel vehicles and focus on the production of electric vehicles. In Q1 Byd Company Limited(002594) sales of 284900 electric vehicles increased by 423% year-on-year and 7.8% month on month. The off-season is not light, and the sales volume increased strongly, reaching a record high. Among them, 143000 pure electric vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 270% and a month on month increase of 5.56%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid models was 141700, with a year-on-year increase of 796% and a month on month increase of 10.2%. From March to April, some electric vehicle enterprises stopped production / reduced production due to the impact of the epidemic. About 18% of the company’s production capacity is located in Shenzhen. During the risk control period in Shenzhen, the factories in the park can still be closed for operation, and the company’s electric vehicle production is less disturbed by the epidemic. With the launch of Ocean series, warship series, Dynasty Series and other models in 22 years, we expect that the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) electric vehicles will be 1.5 million + in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 155%.
The second price increase transmitted the cost pressure, increased sales volume and increased the cost of hedging part. Since the beginning of 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) some models have raised their prices in early February, with an increase of Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan. In mid March, the second price increase was started, with an increase of 400011000 yuan, transmitting a certain cost pressure. At the same time, the company’s high capacity utilization caused by the high growth of electric vehicle sales has led to a significant improvement in profits, which to some extent hedges the profit pressure caused by the rise in the price of upstream raw materials.
The year-on-year increase in battery installed capacity is high, the elasticity of energy storage is large in 22 years, and the shipment is expected to double. According to the company’s production and marketing express, the total installed capacity of 2022q1 Byd Company Limited(002594) battery power and energy storage is 14.73gwh, which is flat and slightly increased month on month. We expect that the energy storage battery is about 2gwh. We expect the company’s energy storage shipment to be 8-10gwh in 2022, doubling year-on-year. In the field of power, with the growth of the demand for electric tools and the increase of the proportion of external supply of blade batteries, we expect the company’s power battery shipment to double to 60gwh + in 2022, and the total shipment of energy storage + power batteries (self use and external supply) is close to 80gwh, more than doubling year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the company’s record sales volume and significant improvement in profits, we maintain the expectation that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 6.382111.46/18.505 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 109.58% / 74.65% / 66.02%, corresponding to 109 / 62 / 38xpe, and maintain the “buy” rating
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected and the profit level is lower than expected.
