\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 884 Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) )
Matters:
The company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 20.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.94%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2320%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.885 billion yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The performance is partial to the upper limit of the forecast, and the core business is developing in unison: the company's revenue in 21 years was 20.699 billion yuan, of which the two main businesses of lithium battery materials and polarizer achieved revenue of 9.125/9.944 billion yuan, accounting for 44.1% and 48% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 3.34 billion yuan, excluding 1.885 billion yuan, all of which were at the upper limit of the forecast deviation, of which the contributions of the net profit attributable to the parent company of positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and polarizer were 304, 525, 368 and 1197 million yuan respectively. The comprehensive gross profit margin of 21 years was 25%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6pct, mainly due to the significant improvement of the profitability of lithium battery materials and business adjustment. In terms of period expenses, in the 21st year, the sales expense rate was 0.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7pct, the management expense rate was 3.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 3PCT, and the R & D expense rate was 3.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.32pct; The significant decrease of expense rate during the period is mainly due to: 1) the change of business structure caused by the combination of polarizer and positive meter; 2) When the accounting standards change, the transportation cost in the sales expense is included in the operating cost; 3) Improvement of the company's operation and management. The company accrued impairment loss of about 650 million yuan throughout the year, including 340 million polarizers + 100 million lithium battery materials. If the impairment of the main business is considered, the actual operating profit is more than 2.2 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation.
The number of negative electrodes increased at the same time, and the investment of new production capacity accelerated: the negative electrode revenue in 21 years was 4.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200%; Benefiting from the release of graphitization capacity and the improvement of negative capacity utilization, the gross profit margin of negative business reached 28.62%, up 0.9pct year-on-year. In 21 years, the sales volume of negative electrode was 100000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 71%, and the average price per ton was 41000 yuan; The net profit per ton was 6000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%. The company has accelerated the expansion of Baotou phase II in Inner Mongolia and Meishan integrated base in Sichuan. The trial production of 60000 tons of Baotou phase II in Inner Mongolia will be carried out at the end of 2021. It is expected to reach the production capacity in Q3 in 22, with a total annual capacity of more than 180000 tons and a shipment of more than 160000 tons; In 23 years, with the effective release of 100000 tons of Meishan integration phase I in Sichuan, the negative electrode and graphitization capacity will reach 300000 and 200000 tons respectively. In addition, the company introduced four strategic investors, including wending investment, Byd Company Limited(002594) ningde new energy and Kunlun capital, to increase capital in the negative pole sector. After the capital increase, the company's shareholding in the negative pole business was changed from 90% to 87%, which is conducive to further deepening the cooperation and binding between upstream and downstream.
The performance of polarizer business is stable and the company's performance is thickened: in 21 years, the revenue of polarizer business is 9.944 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent is 1.197 billion yuan, the gross profit margin is 24.6%, and the net profit margin is about 12%; The annual sales volume was 113 million square meters, and the single average price was 87.74 yuan, maintaining the annual downward trend, and the single average net profit was 10.6 yuan. In 21 years, the company's polarizer share was 24%, ranking first in the world. The bases in Nanjing and Guangzhou maintained full production. Through the improvement of equipment and technology, the production line was accelerated and the production capacity was effectively improved. At present, the polarizer production capacity of the company is about 150 million square meters. In 22 years, the production line in Guangzhou was relocated to reach the production capacity, and the new production capacity was 50 million square meters; Zhangjiagang and Mianyang are expected to add a total of 90 million square meters of capacity in 23-24 years. At the product level, in addition to continuously realizing the global leading advantage of TV products, the company will vigorously promote the market scale in the field of it and mobile phones, actively develop new products such as OLED, realize the comprehensive coverage of small and medium-sized to super large products, and build an all-round competitive advantage.
The price of raw materials rose sharply, and the profits of cathode and electrolyte increased greatly: the consolidated revenue of cathode in 21 years was 3.615 billion yuan (from January to August), and the gross profit margin was 17.88%, which was significantly higher than that in 20 years; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 304 million yuan (including the investment income from September to December), with a year-on-year increase of 119%. In the 21st year, BASF fir had a revenue of 6.223 billion yuan, and the sales volume is expected to exceed 35000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 16%, and the average price per ton is 170000180000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%; The annual net profit was 496 million yuan, and the net profit per ton was about 14000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%. In the 21st year, the electrolyte revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150%, and the gross profit margin increased by 33.55 PCT to 47.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 368 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year; The sales volume was 17500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, mainly because the company's electrolyte output was limited by the tight supply of VC additives; The average price per ton was 78400 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 184%, and the net profit per ton was 25000 yuan. The sharp increase in the profits of cathode and electrolyte mainly benefits from the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials lithium carbonate and hexafluoride. With the peak of raw material prices, the profits of the sector are expected to gradually return.
Investment suggestion: the company has carried out large-scale business reorganization in the past 20 years and established the strategic direction of two wheel drive of lithium battery materials and polarizers; Over the past 21 years, the company's quarterly performance has continued to exceed expectations, and market confidence has been further repaired and thickened. The high prosperity of the electric vehicle industry and the stable growth of the panel industry provide the company with a strategic window for development. The business transformation from "addition" to "subtraction" is expected to have a positive impact on the company's performance. Taking into account the changes at the macro and industry levels and the impact of equity incentive fees, we lowered the company's forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 23 to 3.53 billion yuan respectively (the previous value was 4.01/5.39 billion yuan), increased the 24-year forecast of 5.84 billion yuan, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on April 19 was 15.2/11.5/9.2 times respectively, maintaining the "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the risk that the sales growth of new energy vehicles is lower than expected. If the policy support is less than expected, the product upgrading and the development of battery technology are less than expected, it will have a negative impact on the promotion of new energy vehicles and the demand for power batteries. 2) The risk of sharp decline in product prices due to intensified industry competition. The rapid development of the new energy vehicle market has attracted many suppliers to expand production capacity one after another. The price war brought by the intensification of industry competition will significantly affect the profitability of enterprises. 3) The risk that the business structure adjustment is less than expected. If the reporting time of other businesses is slower than expected, it will affect the release of the company's profits.
