\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 200 Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 259 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 124%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 356%.
Q1 revenue increased significantly, driven by the large volume of new products, and the orders are still full
In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 259 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 124%, lower than the market expectation. On the whole, the company's Q1 revenue continues to grow rapidly. We judge that it is mainly due to the high momentum of the semiconductor industry since the second half of 2021. The company has signed more new orders in 2021q3 (the company's contract liabilities reached 140 million yuan at the end of 2021q3, year-on-year + 265%), and most of the revenue is recognized in 2022q1. In the short term, driven by the strong demand for automotive electronics, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry is still high, the demand for IC design and testing equipment continues to be strong, and the demand of the sealing and testing plant is also picking up rapidly in March. With the rapid volume of new products such as the company's sts8300, we judge that the company's orders are still full. By the end of 2022q1, the contract liabilities and inventories of the company had reached 124 million yuan and 198 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 51% and 82% respectively. Considering that the company has a large supply of raw materials from Shanghai and surrounding areas, the epidemic situation is a short-term uncertain factor. If the follow-up epidemic situation eases, there will still be strong support for the rapid growth of the company's performance in 2022.
The scale effect of the company is obvious. The net interest rate of 2022q1 increased significantly year-on-year
In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 356%, and the net sales interest rate was 47.09%, a year-on-year increase of + 23.94pct, with a significant increase in profitability. Specifically: 1) gross profit side: the overall gross profit margin of 2022q1 company is 80.03%, with a year-on-year decrease of -0.70pct, still maintaining an excellent level; 2) Expense side: during 2022q1, the expense rate of the company was 22.74%, with a year-on-year -13.73pct, and the scale effect was obvious. Among them, the expense rates of sales, management, R & D and finance were -6.66pct, -3.11pct, -6.86pct and + 2.91pct respectively. The sharp decline of the expense rate during the period was the core driving force for the significant year-on-year increase of the company's net interest rate. 3) In addition, the company's net income from changes in fair value in 2021q1 was - 17 million yuan, compared with 436000 yuan in the same period in 2022q1, which also promoted the significant increase of net interest rate in 2022q1.
Forward looking layout of SoC / GaN test equipment to further open growth space
While maintaining the leading position of analog testing machines, the company has expanded new SoC / GaN testing machines, and the growth space continues to open: ① we estimate that the global SOC testing machine market will reach US $1.9 billion in 2020, about 4-5 times that of analog testing machines. The market has been monopolized by thalida & edwan for a long time, and localization needs to be broken through. The company has accumulated in relevant fields for many years. Sts8300 has received many high-quality customer orders and achieved a certain installed capacity. After the IPO project is completed, it will form a production capacity of 200 SoC Test equipment per year, further opening up the growth space of the company; ② 2021 is the first year of Gan volume. The orders of the company's third-generation semiconductors have increased significantly, and the products have entered head customers such as Navitas, STMicroelectronics and Huawei, which will continue to benefit from the high growth and incremental demand brought by emerging downstream applications.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the high prospect of the semiconductor industry, we maintain the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 as 640 million yuan, 873 million yuan and 1159 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 38 / 28 / 21 times respectively. The company has strong growth and maintains the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the capital expenditure of the semiconductor industry is less than expected, and the industrialization of new products is less than expected.
