\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 216 Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) )
Event:
The company released the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the annual revenue was 6.943 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 641 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.55%. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 2.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 261 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.36%.
Comments:
The performance has been significantly repaired quarter by quarter, and the gross profit has increased to improve the profit
Under the background of weak industry demand and channel impact in 21 years, the company's revenue has remained relatively stable. 21q4 revenue growth stopped falling but rose, with a year-on-year increase of 8.24%, and net profit increased by 29.37% year-on-year; 22q1's revenue increased slightly by 0.49% year-on-year and net profit increased by 48.36% year-on-year. In contrast, the profit side of the company showed an obvious improvement trend quarter by quarter, mainly due to the rebound of gross profit margin brought by the company's internal cost reduction and efficiency increase, product structure upgrading and other measures. At the same time, the sales expense rate and management expense rate showed a steady decline trend, and the results of cost control and channel fine management showed.
New pastries drive growth and expand the market through emerging channels
In terms of products, the annual revenue of quick-frozen noodle rice / quick-frozen conditioning products / refrigeration and short-term insurance in 21 years was 6.03/7.5/120 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.19% / 29.67% / 40.15%. Among the flour and rice products, the revenue of traditional dumplings, dumplings and zongzi decreased by 8.07% year-on-year, while the revenue of dim sum and pastry products increased by 10.37% year-on-year. The new dim sum flour and rice products are expected to become the growth point of the company's performance. In terms of channels, the retail and innovation markets achieved a net profit of 5.772 billion yuan, down 3.58% year-on-year, and the catering market achieved a net profit of 1.171 billion yuan, up 24.64% year-on-year. Channel reform has been continuously promoted, and emerging channels have gradually developed.
Profit forecast and investment rating
The company carried out equity incentive at the end of 2021, with sufficient endogenous power. A series of measures such as product innovation and channel structure adjustment have been continuously implemented. We are optimistic about the future development of the company. However, due to the weaker demand side than expected in 21 years and taking into account the cost pressure caused by the rising price of raw materials, we adjusted the revenue forecast for 20222023 to RMB 7639 / 8559 million (the original value was RMB 8360 / 9262 million), with a year-on-year increase of 10.02% / 12.04%, adjusted the net profit for 20222023 to RMB 744 / 833 million (the original value was RMB 759 / 840 million), and gave the revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 to RMB 9509 million and RMB 992 million respectively, The corresponding EPS is 0.85/0.95/1.12 yuan, the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 22 / 19 / 16 times, the PE valuation of 2022 is 28 times, the corresponding target price is 23.8 yuan, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk tips
Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The business expansion and laying rate of Shabu Kehui is lower than expected; Food safety risks.
