\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 116 Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 296million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.88%, in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 296 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.88%, in line with market expectations. The company’s revenue increased by 17.92% year-on-year to 13.8 billion yuan in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 296 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.88%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 262 million, with a year-on-year increase of 243.3%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 was 92 million yuan, an increase of 11% month on month, in line with market expectations. In 2021, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 408 million yuan, an increase of 161.4% year-on-year and 4.93% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 202.63% and a month on month increase of 10.72%. Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 86 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 319.19% and a month on month increase of 19.33%.
Shipments increased sharply throughout the year, and the layout improved the price space. The company shipped 33000 tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 125%, of which Q4 shipped nearly 11000 tons in 2021, a month on month increase of 15%. We expect that the company’s shipment in 2022 is expected to reach 70000 tons, doubling year-on-year for two consecutive years. In 2021, the gross profit per ton of carbon nanotube slurry was 13500 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton was 8000 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 50% year-on-year. The subsidiary Xinna environmental protection has arranged a 45000 ton NMP recycling project. We expect to contribute part of the production capacity in 2022, and the company’s net profit per ton will be further improved in the future.
High demand for carbon nano materials and structural upgrading boosted profits. Compared with the traditional conductive agent carbon black, carbon nano conductive agent has obvious cost performance advantages. GGII predicts that the permeability of carbon nanotubes is expected to increase from 27% to 61% in 2025. The demand for carbon nanotubes continued to increase, and the competition pattern of the industry was stable. We expect that some iron lithium batteries will switch to the second generation products in 2022, which will help the upgrading of the company’s product structure, and the profitability will rise steadily in 2022.
Benefiting from the upgrading of lithium battery technology, the penetration rate continues to increase. In 2021, the company accounted for 43.4% of China’s carbon nanotube slurry market, and its leading position was stable. We expect that in 2021, the shipment volume of the first generation products will be about 35%, the second generation products will account for about 60%, and the third generation products will be close to 10%. With the high nickel volume, the share of the third generation products will increase rapidly. The company will expand its production globally. We expect that the production capacity will be gradually released in 2022. The production capacity will exceed 120000 tons by the end of the year, and the output is expected to reach 70000 tons.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of the epidemic on the production capacity construction progress, we revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 673 / 1086 / 1685 million yuan (previously expected 706 / 1136 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 128% / 61% / 55%, corresponding to pe42x / 26x / 17x. Considering the accelerated penetration of carbon nanotubes and the rapid development of the industry, we gave 60 times PE in 2022 and a target price of 174 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
