\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021 & the first quarterly report of 2022:
2021: income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points are 10.1 billion, 1.3 billion and 1.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 25%, – 20% and – 19%;
2022q1: income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points are 2.1 billion, 370 million and 340 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 9%, 2% and 4%.
Revenue analysis:
In the whole year of the 21st century, the number of new categories increased as scheduled
By category: ① among the new categories, dishwashers achieved a revenue of 450million yuan, yoy+101%, accounting for 4% of the revenue; integrated steaming and baking machines achieved a revenue of 650million yuan, yoy+71%, accounting for 6.4%; integrated stoves achieved a revenue of 330million yuan, yoy+26%, which also achieved a good growth when the main brands were not strong; ② the share of traditional categories rose against the trend, and range hoods and gas stoves achieved a revenue of 4.88 billion yuan and 2.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19% and 27%, 9% compared with the CAGR in 19 15%. Under the background of dull industry, there is still good growth through share improvement.
22q1: the epidemic situation is disturbed for a short time, and the subsequent new products are expected to develop
22q1’s revenue is 2.1 billion, yoy + 9%. We expect that the national epidemic since March will have a certain impact on the company’s dynamic sales. At the same time, the real estate data is relatively low, which is expected to bring some pressure to the project channels. We noticed that the company held a new product launch on March 30 and released products such as a new generation of high-tech integrated stove, ultra-thin range hood, high-capacity steaming, baking and frying all-in-one machine and so on. It is expected that with the boost of new products, the revenue growth rate in the subsequent quarters is expected to increase.
Profit analysis:
Gross profit margin: 43.7% for 21q4, 52.6% for yoy-10pct, 52.6% for 22q1 and 4.8% for yoy-10pct. The company adjusted the accounting standards on 21q4, and the freight was included in the cost at one time, resulting in the low gross profit margin of 21q4. If calculated by gross pin difference caliber, 21q4 is 30.3%, yoy-3.3%, 22q1 is 23.5%, yoy-1.6%. The decline narrowed month on month;
Bad debts: a total of 780 million were withdrawn, including 660 million withdrawn by Evergrande and 120 million withdrawn by other customers;
Expense ratio: in the 21st, the annual sales, management and R & D expense ratios were 24.2%, 3.6% and 3.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.2pct, + 0.1pct and – 0.1pct; The rates of sales, management and R & D expenses in 22q1 were 29%, 4.0% and 3.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.2pct, + 0.3pct and + 0.2pct. It is expected that the decrease of sales expense rate is related to the change of accounting standards.
Net interest rate: 21q4 loss of 11 million due to provision; 22q1 net interest rate 17.5%, yoy-1.5pct.
Investment suggestions:
Under the background of high growth of new categories in the second curve, we raised the company’s revenue forecast for 22 and 23 years and introduced the 24-year revenue forecast. It is estimated that the company’s sales revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 11.17 billion, 13.5 billion and 15.5 billion (originally RMB 11.24 billion and 12.89 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 15%, 15% and 15%. Considering the cost pressure of raw materials and the company’s new product promotion period may adopt strategic cost investment, we lowered the company’s performance forecast for 22 and 23 years and introduced the 24-year performance forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 2.20, 2.59 and 3 billion yuan (originally 2.29 and 2.64 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 65%, 17% and 16%.
We believe that under the real estate stress test, the company has maintained the growth toughness of traditional categories. Under the background of the continuous growth of the second curve category, the growth rate of the company in the next three years will be significantly higher than that in the 20182020 cycle. The company also previously proposed an equity incentive target of 15% compound growth rate of revenue in three years to maintain the “buy” proposal.
Risk tips:
The project channel income is lower than expected, the bad debt risk of other real estate customers, and the competition of new categories worsens
