\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Event: on April 19, the company announced that it won the bid for the “1600 single crystal furnace procurement” project of Yuze semiconductor (Yunnan) Co., Ltd., with a bid winning amount of about 300 million yuan. The above projects will be delivered by the end of June 2022. According to the company’s revenue recognition policy, the company will recognize revenue after equipment acceptance, and there is still uncertainty whether it will have an impact on the current performance in 2022.
The intelligent equipment business covers the whole field of photovoltaic silicon wafer, battery and module of the company. The company is the leader of photovoltaic module series welding machine. Relying on the deep accumulation of the founder’s team in automation, welding, visual inspection and other underlying technologies, the business extends from intelligent equipment in the module link to battery chip and silicon chip link. At present, the company’s business of forming batch orders includes: silicon wafer end (single crystal furnace, silicon wafer sorter), battery (TOPCON light injection annealing furnace), components (laser dicing machine, series welding machine). In addition, the company also has a number of photovoltaic technology reserves, including battery CVD technology, screen printing technology, cleaning and cashmere technology, El and PL detection technology, component stacking and typesetting technology, etc.
The single crystal furnace has a new single target of more than 1 billion in 22 years, and the silicon wafer customers such as Yuze, Jingke and Jingao have cooperation expectations. In the company’s photovoltaic business, the core technologies of single crystal furnace, such as crystal growth and temperature control, are mainly from the subsidiary Songci Electromechanical. After the capital increase in April 2021, the company owns 51% of the shares of Songci Electromechanical. Songporcelain electromechanical single crystal furnace has solid technical strength. Its starting product is the latest generation of 1600 direct pull single crystal furnace, equipped with feeding machine, which can pull 12 inch and n-type crystal rods. It has the ability of whole process automation, and the output is more efficient. It is expected to launch semiconductor single crystal furnace in the future. According to the performance exchange meeting of the company’s 2021 annual report, the orders of the company’s single crystal furnace exceeded 1 billion in 22 years, which is expected to reach 1.3-1.4 billion yuan. In order to achieve this goal: 1) from the perspective of production capacity, the monthly production capacity of songporcelain electromechanical single crystal furnace has reached 150 units by the end of March and is expected to increase to 180200 units by the end of June. According to the conservative estimation of the sales price of single crystal furnace of 1.1-1.3 million yuan, the production capacity of the company will be equivalent to 2.4 billion orders; 2) From the perspective of customers, the orders of the company’s single crystal furnace in the past 21 years mainly came from Jingke, Jingao and Yuze semiconductor, of which the order of 140 million yuan of Yuze semiconductor was the company’s first single crystal furnace GW order. According to solarzoom data statistics, Yuze semiconductor still expanded its production by about 7gw in the past 22 years, and the company has nearly 60% market share in the silicon wafer sorter link, with significant customer synergy, The 300 million orders further strengthened the expectation of high increase in orders of single crystal furnace in the whole year; 3) Technically, the core link of the single crystal furnace is the numerical control system. Relying on the deep accumulation of automation, the company is expected to empower Yuze with technology and further strengthen its single crystal furnace business layout in addition to management, capital and customers.
We are optimistic about the steady growth of serial welding machine + multi platform layout and the elastic release of semiconductor bonding machine. The company’s series welding machine business benefits from downstream iteration and production expansion, and the second-order conductivity is weak. In terms of 22 years of large-scale and smbb iteration, 22-24 years of hjt, TOPCON and IBC, the company is expected to continue to maintain its advantages. At the same time, considering the company’s collaborative layout in the fields of photovoltaic, lithium battery and semiconductor, the company’s traditional business orders are expected to maintain stable growth. In April, the company obtained the batch order of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) aluminum wire bonding machine, and compared with the high-end model powerfusion of LISO method. At present, the company has signed cooperation agreements with about 20 Trial customers and has the capacity of mass production. The total import value of China’s bonding machines (gold, silver, copper and aluminum wire) in 21 years was US $1.586 billion, a year-on-year increase of +136%. As an enterprise that takes the lead in laying out aluminum wire bonding equipment in China, the company is expected to quickly realize the domestic replacement of aluminum wire bonding machines by virtue of its advantages in performance, after-sales, delivery cycle and price, and expand to gold and copper wire bonding machines to create another high-speed and stable growth business after the series welding machine. Long term optimistic about the steady growth of serial welding machine + multi platform layout and the elastic release of semiconductor bonding machine.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 560 / 81 / 1.09 billion, corresponding to pe38 / 26 / 20 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the iteration of module technology is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
