\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
In 2021, the revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the emerging categories performed well, maintaining the “buy” rating
In 2021, the operating revenue was 10.15 billion (+ 24.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.33 billion (- 19.8%). Traditional cigarette stoves have obvious leading advantages, and emerging categories such as steaming and baking machines and dishwashers have performed well, with a large decline in performance, mainly due to the sharp rise in raw materials and the impact of the provision for bad debts of accounts receivable. In 2022q1, the revenue was 2.09 billion (+ 9.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million (+ 2.5%). Considering the impact of the epidemic disturbance, the profit forecasts for 20222023 and new 2024 are lowered. It is estimated that RMB 2.18/25.4/2.93 billion (original value of RMB 2.24/2.68 billion in 20222023) and EPS are 2.30/2.67/3.09 yuan (original value of RMB 2.36/2.82 in 20222023). The current stock price is 13.1/11.3/9.8 times PE respectively. The company’s emerging categories expand smoothly and maintain the “buy” rating.
The performance of smoke stove category is stable, the performance of emerging categories is outstanding, and the direct marketing mode is increased, so as to optimize the channel structure
The first product group grew steadily. In 2021, the revenue of range hood / gas stove increased by + 18.7% / 24.3% respectively, and the revenue of emerging products increased by + 71.3% / 101.3% / 172.6% respectively, driving the revenue share of the second and third product groups by + 0.8/2.4pcts respectively. Considering that the company launched seven new products and main brands including high-performance integrated stove to enter the field of integrated stove in March, it is optimistic that the company’s traditional products will hold the share advantage Emerging categories are growing rapidly. According to the sales mode, the revenue of direct sales / commission sales / distribution / engineering mode in 2021 will be + 39.1% / 19.2% / 9.9% / 7.0% respectively. The revenue structure will continue to be optimized, and the growth rate will recover after the optimization of engineering customers.
The rise of raw materials puts pressure on the gross profit margin, and the risk of bad debt provision is clear. The net interest rate is good for a long time
The gross profit margin in 2021 is 52.4% (- 3.8pct), which is mainly due to the adjustment of freight account from expense to cost and the rise of raw material price. By category, the gross profit margin of range hood / gas stove / disinfection cabinet is – 5.9 / – 2.1 / – 11.5pcts respectively. With the rise of raw materials, the pressure on the gross profit margin is obvious, and the toughness of the gross profit margin of smoke stove is better than that of disinfection cabinet. According to the sales model, the gross profit margin of the direct sales model in 2021 is + 5.1pcts, and the improvement against the trend reflects the good effect of the company’s new strategy of pushing up sales and strong brand strength. In a single quarter, the gross profit margin of the company in 2022q1 was 52.56% (-4.78pcts), up 8.8pcts month on month compared with 2021q4, and the improvement trend has been shown. Driven by the adjustment of freight account and the improvement of expense delivery efficiency, the company’s sales expense rates in 2021 / 2022q1 were – 2.2 / – 3.2pcts respectively. The net interest rate in 2021 is 13.3% (- 7.5pcts) and that in 2022q1 is 17.5% (- 1.5pcts). The net interest rate of the company is expected to improve in the long term under the clearing of bad debt risk.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Fluctuations in the real estate market; The expansion of emerging categories did not meet expectations.
