On the 19th, the beautiful quarterly reports issued by Zhejiang Jindun Fans Co.Ltd(300411) and Joyvio Food Co.Ltd(300268) suddenly ignited the stock price, and both closed up 20%, becoming a rare bright color in the current depressed market.
Guosheng Securities said, historically, the high correlation between the stock price performance and the performance of the first quarterly report is an important feature of the market in April . With the disclosure of performance forecasts, high performance growth stocks will be sought after by funds, and the market of the first quarterly report will gradually reach a climax.
According to the statistics of the reporter of Shanghai Securities News, as of April 19, 556 listed companies have announced the performance forecast of the first quarter. According to the type of performance forecast, 274 companies increased in advance, 31 companies reversed losses, and 96 companies increased slightly. The proportion of anticipation, including continued earnings, exceeded 70%.
these subdivided industries continue to enjoy high prosperity
In terms of industry distribution, Baoxi company is mainly distributed in basic chemical industry, electronics, mechanical equipment, non-ferrous metals, power equipment and other industries , including more than 30 companies, and more companies in coal, automobile, national defense and military industry.
The reporter combed the reasons for the performance growth of 274 pre increase companies in detail, of which about 73 companies made it clear that the main reason for the performance growth of first quarter report was the rise in the price of the company’s main products . In fact, since March this year, the performance of price increase theme has been the strongest.
According to the performance forecast of the first quarter report, 14 coal enterprises said that the increase of China’s coal market price in the first quarter of 2022 made the company’s performance increase significantly year-on-year. Shenwan coal industry index rose 28% this year, ahead of most other sectors.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that since this year, the fundamentals of Chinese coal enterprises have exceeded expectations, and the increase of international coal prices is more obvious. The supply increment outside China is limited, and the downstream demand is resilient. The policy of power coal long-term association was implemented, and the enterprise profit was established at the “medium and high” level. Coal prices are expected to remain high, profits show high elasticity, and continue to be optimistic about the improvement of sector valuation.
At the same time, in 2021, the chemical fertilizer industry ushered in a strong boom cycle, and the boom of the industry also continued to 2022, and relevant enterprises ushered in a super harvest. Seven companies including Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited(000912) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) and Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) achieved significant growth in performance in the first quarter, mainly due to the year-on-year rise in the price of chemical fertilizer products.
The first quarter report of 6 Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co.Ltd(000962) 022, the leader of phosphorus chemical industry, achieved a revenue of 14.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.28%; The net profit was 1.646 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.15%; The non net profit deducted was 1.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.63%. The results in the first quarter of this year reached the highest profit record in a single quarter.
Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited(000912) 2022 first quarter net profit is expected to be 130160 million yuan, an increase of 156.51% – 215.71% over the same period of last year. The change is mainly due to the year-on-year increase in the sales price of chemical fertilizer and chemical products, and the year-on-year increase in the production and sales of compound fertilizer products.
Up to now, Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) , Shan Dong Lubei Chemcal Co.Ltd(600727) and other quarterly reports have not been disclosed.
announcement of “Nuggets” by peer companies
The reporter found that six pesticide companies said that pesticide prices, including glyphosate, continued to operate at a high level, continuing the boom trend in 2021.
Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) 2021 annual performance achieved revenue of 18.977 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.45%; The net profit was 2.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 354.56%. This is the company’s best performance since its listing, and its revenue and net profit both hit record highs.
Not only that, the company also disclosed the estimated net profit of 1.15 billion yuan to 1.25 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 313% to 349% year-on-year. The company said that the main products including glyphosate, organosilicon and industrial silicon, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, have continued the state of continuous prosperity since 2021, and the product prices continue to operate at a high level.
Based on this calculation, the first quarter report of Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) and other companies in the same industry that have not yet released the performance forecast will also increase at a probable rate.
Then combing along the industrial chain, the main products of Shandong Dongyue Organosilicon Materials Co.Ltd(300821) , Ningbo Runhe High-Tech Materials Co.Ltd(300727) , Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) and other products are silicone. According to the description of Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) , the growth of the company in this segment market is expected in the first quarter.
Also growing is the salt chemical industry.
Jiangsu Suyan Jingshen Co.Ltd(603299) , Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) ‘s main products include salt, industrial salt and other salt chemical products. The main reason for the pre increase of the performance of the two companies in the first quarter is that the company’s operation was stable in the first quarter, the production and sales were booming, the volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, and the profitability increased year-on-year.
Companies in the same industry that have not disclosed the first quarterly report or performance forecast include Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) and other companies.
In addition, Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) , Sinosteel New Materials Co.Ltd(002057) all said that the first quarter report increased significantly, mainly because the overall magnetic materials continued to maintain a high outlook and the profitability was further enhanced.
It can be predicted that companies in the same industries as Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Chengdu Galaxy Magnets Co.Ltd(300127) , Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) and Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) will have optimistic prospects for the first quarter report in the future.
The analysis of other companies pre increased in the first quarter also disclosed that the prices of soda ash, lithium battery materials, liquefied natural gas, rare earth and other products increased significantly year-on-year, maintaining a high boom. Peer enterprises in the industrial chain deserve attention.
fund has been established for more than two months, with nearly 90% of the stock positions, and they launched a massive attack…
In the shock adjustment of the market, some star fund managers choose to build positions quickly. Taking the selection of HSBC Jinxin research managed by 2020 stock based champion Lu Bin as an example, it was established on January 21 this year. By the end of March, stocks accounted for nearly 90% of the total assets of the fund. However, on the whole, there are great differences in the pace of position building of sub new funds, and most fund managers still adopt the same defense strategy.
From the changes in the net value of the sub new fund (the new fund established this year) since its establishment, the cumulative rise and fall of the net value of more than half of the sub new funds is generally within 4%, which means that the position building strategy of fund managers is generally stable.
For example, Dacheng specialized special new hybrid a managed by Li Linyi was established on January 27. As of April 18, the net value of the fund was still about 1 yuan. Similarly, the southern emerging industry hybrid a managed by luo’an has been established for about 2 months, and the net value of the fund is also around 1 yuan.
However, in the fear of others, some people choose greed. Many star fund managers have an obvious offensive trend and quickly build positions in the market adjustment. By analyzing the past position style, it is found that most fund managers who build positions quickly belong to growth stock players.
For example, Cinda Aoyin Zhiyuan’s three-year holding period a managed by 10 billion fund manager Feng Mingyuan was established on January 25. As of April 18, the fund has lost 11.16% since its establishment. Hongde industrial upgrading hybrid a managed by Yu Haocheng was established a little later. As of April 15, the fund has lost more than 12% since its establishment.
Some new funds have also released a quarterly report, and their specific stock positions have also surfaced. For example, on January 21, HSBC Jinxin research selection managed by Lu Bin was announced to be established. As of April 18, the fund has lost 12.26% since its establishment. From the stock position of the fund, as of the end of March, the proportion of stocks in the total assets of the fund had reached 87.81%.
From the top ten heavyweight stocks selected by HSBC Jinxin research at the end of the first quarter, including China stock market news, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , meituan-w, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , CNOOC, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . From the perspective of position distribution, it mainly focuses on industries such as new energy, medicine, Internet and TMT, with obvious growth style.
Lu Bin said that since February, the butterfly effect of global geopolitics and the development of the epidemic in China have indeed exceeded expectations, and have also brought a lot of pressure to customers, including investors. The market environment is always changing rapidly, and various uncertain factors such as “epidemic” will accompany the whole investment career. As a professional institutional investor, what we should do is to make every effort to predict, respond and adjust, and adhere to the correct investment philosophy and methods.
He also explained the reasons for rapid warehouse building. “We believe that short-term risk events have limited impact on the long-term value of the A-share market. Therefore, under the background that the fundamentals are still good, when the market fluctuates violently in the short term, taking the risk actively may be a better choice than avoiding the risk.”
In addition to the rapid position building of the new funds mentioned above, combing the old funds that currently disclose the first quarterly report, most of the fund’s stock positions remain at more than 90%. For example, by the end of March, stocks accounted for more than 90% of the total assets of many funds managed by Shi Cheng, a 10 billion fund manager, such as SDIC UBS industrial trend, SDIC UBS Jinbao and SDIC UBS advanced manufacturing.
Similarly, the position of Zhonggeng value pilot stock is 93.34%, and the position of Zhonggeng value Pioneer stock is 93.24%. In addition, the selected one-year holding hybrid collective asset management plan of Guangfa asset management core managed by you Wenfeng also reached 90.94%.
Figure stock positions of multiple funds managed by Shicheng
Shi Cheng said that the first quarter is the beginning of the whole year, which is just the beginning. “Although there are great differences in the rise and fall of different sectors at present, and the performance of emerging industries is not good, we still believe that the future belongs to the growth industry. Only long-term industry growth will bring long-term return on investment.”
For specific industries, Shi Cheng said that in terms of equipment manufacturing industry, it will continue to benefit from the capacity expansion of photovoltaic, lithium battery and semiconductor for a long time, and maintain a rapid compound growth rate. However, due to the constraints of the short board link of the industrial chain, the profitability of manufacturing from the midstream is weakened, and the expansion willingness is weakened due to the expected slowdown of potential growth rate, which may have a certain impact on capital expenditure. Therefore, it is still to continue to observe the follow-up changes and focus more on the manufacturing field related to emerging industries.
Cui Chenlong, the champion of last year’s public fund, also spoke publicly recently and has great confidence in the future market. “In fact, I’ve lost a lot of money on my own purchase, but I personally won’t sell it and hold it firmly in this position. If you have confidence in the new energy track and my personal investment and stock selection ability, you can gradually use the fixed investment method to layout in this position. Because in the long run, the whole new energy industry is still spiraling and developing very fast.”
