Gold prices opened up again.
In the past two weeks, the international gold price rose by about 2%, once reaching US $2000 / ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures has risen by about 2.5% since early April. As of press time, the international gold price fluctuated near the 1975 US dollar / ounce mark; COMEX gold futures reported 1980 US dollars / ounce.
Despite the rising interest rate of US bonds, which constitutes adverse factors for gold, the price of gold continued to rise in the first quarter, including geographical conflicts and inflationary pressure. Boosted by the high operation of gold prices, global funds are also pouring into gold ETFs. In March, global gold ETFs received a net inflow of 187.3 tons, or US $11.8 billion, the largest monthly net inflow record in nearly six years.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities Research Report believes that the gold price is expected to continue to rise against the background of the current small space for the fed to raise interest rates and the intensification of global inflation. Accordingly, gold stocks that focus on the main business and have strong capacity to increase production will have high flexibility.
inflation remains high and gold prices continue to rise
The high price of gold “benefits” from the high fever of inflation.
According to the latest data released by the US Department of labor, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% month on month and 8.5% year-on-year in March. Both exceeded expectations and reached a 40 year high, boosting gold prices to continue to rise. According to datayes, Comex gold prices have risen by about 4% since March, breaking through $2000 an ounce.
The price of gold still has room to rise further. Hua’an futures believes that although the interest rate hike has been implemented and the real interest rate is rising, the price of gold is still very tenacious, mainly because the current environmental variables have changed, and other factors other than the real interest rate are becoming the leading factor driving the price of gold.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) futures pointed out that in addition to the continued rise of US inflation data, the global inflationary pressure continued to exist and gradually transmitted to consumption. Specifically, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled to start the process of quantitative tightening; The European Central Bank announced an interest rate resolution to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. Natural gas prices continue to rise, and the real economy in Europe continues to be impacted by high costs.
Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy to curb inflation. Hua’an futures expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seven times in 2022 and will start to shrink the table in May. Driven by the tight labor market, high inflationary pressure and the increasing expectation of market tightening, the 10-year yield of US bonds rose sharply, from about 1.5% at the end of last year to more than 2.8%, with an upward range of more than 120 basis points.
gold ETF scale continues to increase
As the gold price gradually rose, funds began to “favor” gold ETFs According to the latest report released by the World Gold Council, in March, the global gold ETF received a net inflow of 187.3 tons, or US $11.8 billion, the largest monthly net inflow record since 2016.
The World Gold Council reported that all regional funds received net inflows in March, mainly driven by increased positions of North American and European funds. Among them, the net inflow of Asian funds in March was 2.6 tons, equivalent to US $166 million, and relevant Chinese funds became the main driving force. In China, the total position of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) etf rose to 61.8 tons in March, an increase of 2.4 tons, or US $150 million, compared with the end of February.
In addition to global funds buying gold ETFs on a large scale, Chinese public funds also began to participate in the “gold buying tide”. According to the reporter’s incomplete sorting, a number of funds “poured into” gold stocks in the first quarterly report, including Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) , Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , etc.
Specifically, Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) was increased by several funds in the first quarter. As of the end of March, 13 funds held 677368 million shares Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , accounting for 2.77% of circulating shares, with a total market value of more than 590 million yuan. Among them, Huaxia core manufacturing held Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) more than 30 million shares in the first quarter, accounting for 1.23% of the outstanding shares; Qianhai Kaiyuan gold and silver jewelry holds more than 10 million shares; Huatai bairuifuli, Qianhai open source core resources and Huatai bairuihengli all hold more than 2.5 million shares.
Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) is also a heavy stock of several funds. As of the end of March, 24 funds held 297575 million shares in the first quarter Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , accounting for 0.82% of the circulating shares. The total market value of the shares held exceeded 560 million yuan, and the fund increased its holdings of 2.2972 million shares in the first quarter.
Institutional research enthusiasm is high, according to datayes! Pro monitoring: Recently, gold jewelry company Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) won 206 institutional research, and Hou Hao, fund manager of China Merchants Fund, appeared in the research list; This year, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) has been investigated by institutions 14 times, with 75 fund companies participating.
Due to high inflation and strong risk aversion, the gold market is heating up, and funds are flowing into gold ETFs and gold stocks on a large scale. However, Wang Xiang reminded that in the short term, we need to be vigilant against the risk of periodic adjustment caused by table contraction. In Wang Xiang’s view, gold performed well in the stagflation period and the early stage of economic recession, and the impact on the dollar system and the demand for diversified asset allocation under uncertainty will form an additional boost to the upward price of gold.
