[early trading strategy]
Technically, the three major indexes opened low and rebounded low. The Shanghai index was dragged down by big finance. It carried out the weak shock adjustment of contraction below the 5th line, and finally closed a false positive line, and the focus of the index continued to move down; Gem refers to being driven by strong track stocks, and the bottom structure of the daily line is close to forming. After continuous adjustment, the gem index and Shenzhen composite index show signs of taking the lead in building a bottom and picking up. There can be no significant shrinkage, insufficient upward momentum, and the market still needs to wait patiently for repeated bottom grinding.
On the whole, Monday's index differentiation was obvious, the strong sectors and strong stocks in the early stage were adjusted, the trading volume of the two cities shrank seriously, and the stock game characteristics were significant. At present, the conversion of leading hot spots is still relatively frequent. Although the profit-making effect has improved, investors are still in a heavy mood to wait and see with money, and external efforts are still needed to open the situation. Overseas, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still fermenting, which has a continuous impact on global energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, and the prices of relevant bulk commodities are running at a high level. In China, the policy focus is still on steady growth, national unified market, epidemic prevention and control, resumption of work and production, etc. According to the economic data released on Monday, the GDP in the first quarter was 4.8% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from 4% in the fourth quarter of last year, which was basically in line with market expectations. However, the production and consumption data were affected by the short-term epidemic. The poor logistics and supply chain disturbance caused some enterprises to stop production, and the impact on Residents' consumption was particularly obvious. The expectation of subsequent fiscal overweight to stimulate consumption increased. On the whole, as the end of China's policy has been clear, the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range, shock consolidation or the main tone of the recent market. In terms of operation, it is recommended to be cautious and optimistic in the short term, pay attention to high-low switching, focus on position control, and avoid blindly chasing up. Specific attention can be paid to the following directions: first, steady growth is still the most deterministic investment main line in the market, and attention can be paid to new and old infrastructure, real estate industry chain, building materials and other sectors that are expected to benefit; 2、 In the first quarter of this year, the price of upstream raw materials remained high affected by global inflation and the escalation of international conflicts. The main line of continuous inflation is worthy of layout. We can focus on the coal and metal shortage with demand support in the downstream; 3、 Sectors that are expected to gradually improve in troubled industries can focus on allocation opportunities formed after oversold, such as aquaculture.
[message side]
1. Article 23 financial measures were introduced to strengthen support for the real economy
On April 18, the people's Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development, and put forward 23 policies and measures to strengthen financial services and strengthen support for the real economy from the aspects of supporting the relief of distressed subjects, unblocking the national economic cycle and promoting the development of foreign trade and exports.
2. Stable performance and consolidation of the status of "basic market" of the real economy
Under the situation that there are still many traditional challenges, listed companies face more new uncertain factors such as the multi-point spread of the epidemic and the increasing impact of geopolitical conflicts, and performance growth is facing greater pressure. Executives and experts of listed companies interviewed by the reporter of China Securities Journal believe that the strength of steady growth policy is constantly strengthened, and the pain points such as poor logistics are gradually solved, which will enhance enterprise confidence, improve market expectations, help listed companies speed up the conversion of kinetic energy, seize the policy window period, and accumulate momentum for steady growth of performance.
3. The central bank and the safe took 23 measures to strengthen support for the real economy
On April 18, the people's Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on financial services for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which put forward 23 policies and measures to strengthen financial services and support the real economy from three aspects: supporting the relief of the troubled subjects, unblocking the national economic cycle and promoting the development of foreign trade and exports.
4. GDP increased by 4.8% in the first quarter, and the economy started smoothly
On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 270178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. Experts interviewed by the Securities Times said that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter was in line with expectations. Considering that to achieve the goal of annual GDP growth of 5.5% year-on-year, the performance in the second quarter is particularly critical, and the policy is expected to be further strengthened.
