The lower standard than expected, the difficult resumption of work and production, the stock game of sluggish trading, the volatile situation in Russia and Ukraine... Facing the "A-share curse" of April 19, the A-share market is still tangled.
"Today, the market trading volume fell below 800 billion, and the short-term market will be in an extremely unstable state." Yesterday morning, the boss of a private equity fund in Shaanxi cleared the last 20% of the financial positions and chose to take a short rest to avoid what he thought was "systemic risk".
At the same time, a professional investor in Shandong once again strengthened his confidence to be long at this time. "The replacement of fuel vehicles by electric vehicles is a historical opportunity for China to overtake in curves. Although there are twists and turns in this process, the trend will not change. It is my belief to be long in China."
pessimists: wait and see for the signal of re admission
"Around 3200, whether in the past or in the future, it is definitely not a high level. Moreover, from the macro logic point of view, this is the bottom range, but I am short. No contradiction? Not at all!" Last night, the boss of the above-mentioned private equity funds once again expounded his "logic of short positions".
In an exclusive interview with the financial Associated Press, the private placement boss claimed to be a trader and is currently the general manager of an Investment Management Co., Ltd. in Shaanxi. Having been immersed in the capital market for many years, he has a very sensitive insight into the main capital trends and systemic risks of the market.
The reason why he was "bearish and short" at this time mainly came from the logic of the disk and the shrinkage of the market capacity - he felt a bad signal when the big finance that had carried the banner of rebound turned down.
"When I decided to reduce my positions in big finance on a large scale last Thursday night, I found that the disk logic was broken. It was unrealistic to expect big finance to continue to drive the rise of the market, so I reduced my positions vigorously last Friday." He said.
Although the big finance turned downward, the small and medium-sized stocks oversold and rebounded. However, he does not want to participate in the latter's rebound. He is worried about the stability and reliability of the latter - although the rebound of technology stocks is a high probability, its stability is very poor and it is easy to fall again.
In addition, another important indicator that makes him firmly bearish is: "the amount of energy is getting worse and worse". Yesterday, the trading volume fell below 800 billion for the first time, the logic gradually deteriorated, and the liquidity recession appeared. Many investors may not understand it, but for professional players, this is self-evident.
"I'm not afraid of plummeting or bottom reading, but I'm worried about the situation of liquidity recession, and the market may continue to the next level..." the above-mentioned private placement manager said, and revealed that at present, I will keep a short position and wait for the signal and opportunity of admission, and I won't rush forward for the time being.
optimists: strengthening China's confidence to be long
"There must be a dream, and trillions have come true" -- this is a custom defined by a private equity partner's circle of friends in Shandong. In the dozens of days of intermittent exchanges with him, although he was also awed by the risks of the market, he never changed his belief in "long China".
Before officially becoming a private equity partner, he worked in a local securities company for many years. After several times of transformation, he gradually found a sustainable profit mode suitable for himself, so he decided to "do it by himself".
The A-share market in 2022 has experienced the baptism of several rough waves. At the time of extreme panic in the market, the "policy bottom" was officially established in the propaganda of the financial committee at noon on March 16. However, the search for the "bottom of the market" is still difficult and tortuous.
At a time of panic in the market, the private equity partner is also looking for "prey" that can be sniped. The last time the Finance Committee shouted that the real estate sector had become the strongest sector in the past month. This time, the new energy vehicle sector is expected to continue to rebound.
"Under the steady growth policy, in addition to the real estate industry chain, only the automobile industry chain can undertake market funds. Auto parts were first launched last Friday!" Yesterday afternoon, the private equity partner explained to the financial associated press.
In his opinion, the recent downturn in the market trend is mainly due to the "shutdown" caused by the repeated epidemic in China, especially in developed regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Recently, the senior management has noticed this, and the "resumption of work and production" in special periods has been promoted in an orderly manner.
"Coal has made Britain and oil has made the United States. Every energy revolution will make the world overlord. China also has absolute advantages in new energy fields such as wind, light and electricity." He firmly believes that this time, new energy will also achieve China.
The private equity partner firmly believes that the new energy sector is the track of the next decade, the replacement of electric vehicles with fuel locomotives is a change of the times, and overtaking in China's corners is deterministic. "Now it's oversold, and there will be a return of funds." He said.