The great test of the supply chain is coming!
According to China Central Television News, South African President ramafossa announced on the evening of April 18 local time that South Africa has entered a state of disaster due to the flood disaster in KwaZulu Natal province in the east of the country. South Africa is a resource-based country, especially in the new energy supply chain. The country has entered a state of disaster, which is undoubtedly a big test for the already tense supply chain.
In addition, there is bad news from Afghanistan, known as the imperial cemetery. According to sources, there were two explosions near schools in Western Kabul, Afghanistan, killing six people and wounding dozens. The fighting between Russia and Ukraine is fierce, and the tension in Jerusalem is also rising rapidly. It can be said that disasters and wars are testing the world.
It is worth mentioning that last night, Brad, the "eagle king" of the Federal Reserve and chairman of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said at the online meeting of the Foreign Relations Committee: "the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time cannot be ruled out." On April 19, the US dollar index rose above the 101 mark for the first time since March 2020.
From the perspective of the operation of the A-share market, it is also facing four difficulties. So how big will the impact be?
South Africa is in a state of disaster
The tragic floods in South Africa were covered up under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
On the evening of April 18 local time, South African President ramafossa announced that South Africa had entered a state of disaster due to the flood disaster in KwaZulu Natal province in the east of the country.
South Africa's KwaZulu Natal province was hit by floods recently. Governor zikarala said on the 17th that the floods last week had killed 443 people and 63 others were missing. Heavy rainfall caused serious damage to roads, bridges and houses and affected food and fuel supplies. An estimated 40000 people have been displaced by floods.
South Africa is rich in mineral resources and is one of the five largest mineral resource countries in the world. More than 70 kinds of minerals have been proved and mined. The reserves of platinum group metals, fluorspar and chromium rank first in the world, gold, vanadium, manganese and zirconium rank second, titanium ranks fourth, phosphate ore, uranium, lead and antimony rank fifth, coal and zinc rank eighth and copper rank ninth.
South Africa is also an important transit place for African resource exports. For a long time, the transportation of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has to pass through South Africa. According to the data of the United States Geological Survey, by 2020, about 50.5% of the global cobalt reserves are located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and about 70% of the global cobalt production comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In the previous two years, the continuous epidemic in South Africa has brought delays to the supply chain.
In addition, South Africa's agriculture is relatively developed, with a high degree of modernization, abundant agricultural and animal husbandry products and excellent quality. In particular, South Africa's economy is second to none in Africa. Its geographical location and transportation are very convenient, and the degree of agricultural marketization is high. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) has strong competitiveness in the market. Among them, corn, wheat, potatoes, peanuts, vegetables, fruits and meat are more than self-sufficient, and a large number of them are exported to all over the world and aid other African countries. Analysts believe that in addition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the floods in South Africa may worsen the world food crisis.
two explosions in Afghanistan
One wave is not flat, one wave rises again! More and more violent incidents are impacting people's world outlook.
According to the global times, citing the Russian satellite news agency, two bomb attacks occurred in the west of the Afghan capital Kabul on the 19th local time, killing 6 people and wounding dozens of others. Sources pointed out that the bombing targeted two schools. At present, no organization has claimed responsibility. Two weeks ago, an explosion also occurred in Kabul, killing one person and wounding 60 others.
Recently, Afghanistan has been quite restless. Afghan officials accused Pakistan of cross-border air strikes on the 16th and protested. On the 17th, Pakistan asked the Afghan interim government to strengthen the containment of armed personnel hiding in Afghanistan to launch attacks on Pakistan. Agence France Presse quoted local officials of the two provinces as saying that Pakistani military helicopters launched air strikes from the evening of the 15th to the early morning of the 16th, killing more than 40 people, including women and children.
The Middle East is also quite restless. The Israeli military said in a statement in the early morning of the 18th that they launched a series of air strikes on southern Gaza that day, targeting a "weapons manufacturing base" of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). The attack caused no casualties. Israel said it intercepted a Hamas rocket fired from Gaza on the 17th. This is the first time Hamas has fired rockets into Israel in recent months.
The dilemma of a shares
The most noteworthy thing is that last night, Brad, the "eagle king" of the Federal Reserve and chairman of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said at the online meeting of the Foreign Relations Committee: "the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time cannot be ruled out." Today, the dollar index broke through the 101 mark.
when the dollar index breaks through 100, some bad things often happen. So, how should A-Shares be interpreted? From the four aspects of market structure and liquidity, A-Shares are facing some difficulties
First of all, from the perspective of market structure, the risk of board by board and trend following is increasing. Some stocks with strong trend in the early stage began to have a continuous decline limit, and even a continuous floor situation. This means that the operability of the market is weakening rapidly.
Second, the risk of liquidity contraction is increasing. At present, the characteristics of stock game in A-share market are very obvious. Yesterday, in the absence of foreign capital, the transaction volume shrank to 778.1 billion yuan. Today, when the northbound channel is opened, the transaction volume is only 779.1 billion yuan. This is a sharp contraction compared with the previous trillion transactions.
Third, the risk of rapid shrinkage of risk appetite is increasing. This can be seen from the comparison between the raising of REITs and equity funds of CCCC last week. The raising of CCCC REITs is very popular, while the previous equity fund raising with unlimited scenery is miserable. This means that investors' risk appetite is shrinking rapidly.
Fourth, the risk of sustained blood loss in entities increases rapidly. At present, the capital interest rate of the financial system continues to decline, which means that we are not short of money. However, due to the epidemic and other reasons, micro entities are facing greater liquidity pressure, and some operators even sell their houses to repay their debts. The credit of the whole economy has not been broadened.
Behind these dilemmas, there are both cyclical forces and the impact of some emergencies. For investors, following the laws of nature and catering to the power of the cycle may be a good choice
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