The upward production cost superimposes the rigid demand for grain in the downstream, and the prosperity of the chemical fertilizer industry is expected to continue.
fertilizer index rose 3.37% against the market
On April 19, the chemical fertilizer index opened higher and remained strong all day. In the context of the collective decline of the three major A-share indexes, the index rose against the trend and closed up 3.37%.
Among concept stocks, Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Guangdong Tianhe Agricultural Means Of Production Co.Ltd(002999) , Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) , St Jinzheng 4 shares closed the daily limit Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) increased by more than 9% Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited(000912) , Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) and other stocks rose more than 5%.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) reviewing the recent international market, it is believed that although the prices of some international chemical fertilizers have fallen slightly from the historical high, the export of chemical fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine has been blocked, and the EU sanctions against Russia have changed the pattern of global chemical fertilizer trade. In the short and medium term, the supply problem is difficult to solve, and even the supply contradiction has just appeared. The future contradiction may be gradually exacerbated by the "Butterfly Effect" caused by natural gas
On the other hand, due to the seasonal rigid demand for chemical fertilizer in large planting countries, the price of chemical fertilizer around the world repeatedly broke the historical record in March, especially potassium fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer. The rise slowed in April. On the whole, in the future, when the global fertilizer supply and demand mismatch continues to be serious, the international fertilizer price is still in a trend of easy rise and difficult fall, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reach a new high after shock consolidation.
downstream grain demand is rigid, and the prosperity of chemical fertilizer is expected to continue
According to the website of the national development and Reform Commission on the 19th, Meng Wei, deputy director of the Political Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission and spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference in April that the guarantee of fertilizer supply is directly related to the stability of agricultural production such as grain from the current point of view, China's supply of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer is generally guaranteed, and potash fertilizer needs to be partially imported to meet agricultural demand
Kaiyuan Securities believes that energy prices have continued to rise sharply, and some overseas fertilizer enterprises have successively stopped production or reduced production, resulting in a contraction in supply; On the other hand, the production cost of chemical fertilizer is also moving up, providing a strong cost support for the price. In terms of demand, rising grain prices, increased planting willingness and increased fertilization frequency also have a certain pulling effect on the price of chemical fertilizer.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that global food prices continued to rise due to the Russian Ukrainian war, covid-19 epidemic, inflation and other reasons. The long tail effect affects the global food supply in the medium and long term, and the food will continue to be in a high business cycle under the condition of food security and rigid demand, the boom of chemical fertilizer is expected to continue, and we are optimistic about integrated chemical fertilizer enterprises
12 shares expected to double in the first quarter
Since March, the overall trend of individual stocks in the chemical fertilizer sector is good. According to the statistics of securities times and databao, 46 shares rose by an average of 3.83%, far exceeding the market performance in the same period.
13 shares rose by more than 10%, led by Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) with a cumulative increase of 84.93%; Since then, double ring technology, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) have all increased by more than 37%.
7 shares retreated by more than 10%, and Huarong chemical, zangge mining, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Beijing Sanju Environmental Protection & New Materials Co.Ltd(300072) accumulated declines of more than 25%.
According to data treasure statistics, the latest overall valuation of the fertilizer sector is 23.97 times, and the latest rolling P / E ratio of 22 concept stocks is lower than this value. Among them, Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co.Ltd(002274) and other head companies have low rolling P / E ratios, and the latest valuation does not exceed 10 times.
So far, 15 shares in the sector have predicted the performance of the first quarter of this year. Based on the median value of the forecast interval, the net profit of 12 shares is expected to double year-on-year. Among them, double ring technology pre growth rate ranks first, and the net profit growth in the first quarter is expected to exceed 600% Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) net profit increased by more than 300%.
Except for Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited(000912) , the net profit of other stocks in 2021 doubled or even exceeded ten times.
In addition, Huarong chemical and Zhejiang Dayang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(003017) annual report and first quarter performance were all corrected year-on-year.
In terms of capital, some concept stocks have recently been favored by northbound funds. As of April 18, there were 8 additional positions of funds from the north, of which Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , 101.09% and 49.49% respectively; Since then, the positions of Shandong Humon Smelting Co.Ltd(002237) , North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) have increased by more than 10%.
