Key investment points:
Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, the prices of world food, energy and other bulk commodities have fluctuated significantly, further exacerbating the trend of global inflation. It can be predicted that after the war, Russia will still face a series of affairs such as its own economic recovery and the subsequent handling of Russia Ukraine relations, and the sanctions from European and American countries will not be terminated in the short term. Russia's foreign trade and some global supply chains with Russia and Ukraine as the core links will still face a long repair period. So, how much is China's economic dependence on Russia and Ukraine? How did the Russian Ukrainian war affect the supply of corresponding commodities in China? Through the customs import and export data, we can deeply and carefully clarify the impact of the war on China's economy.
The export structures of Russia and Ukraine are different, but they are mainly raw materials. Russia's export structure: mainly energy and minerals, and the proportion of manufacturing products is not high. According to the statistics of Russian exports in 2020 released by the Russian customs, the main components of Russian exports are energy, metal minerals, agricultural products and chemical products. Main export structure of Ukraine: world Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export power.
The structure of China's main imports and imports to Russia and Ukraine. Russia is one of the main sources of import and supply of China's energy, agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery products, metal minerals and fertilizers. Fertilizer is the commodity with the largest proportion of China's imports from Russia, of which mineral potassium fertilizer and chemical fertilizer account for more than 30% of China's total imports. Ukraine is one of the main source countries of China's grain imports. 16.4% of China's grain imports come from Ukraine.
Since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war in late February, the Russian Ukrainian export trade has had a significant impact on the global resource supply. In terms of energy, as the world's third largest exporter of fossil fuels, Russia's sharp decline in exports has led to sharp fluctuations in global crude oil prices and a sharp rise in the supply price of refined oil (gasoline). In terms of food, the average value of FAO food price index in March was 159.3 points, up 12.6% from February and 33.6% higher than the same period last year. The grain price index rose 17.1% month on month (MOM) in March.
Investment strategy: the Russian Ukrainian war will lead to a long-term rise in world energy and food prices. From the perspective of investment strategy, there are two directions worthy of layout. First, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, especially the crop sector, crop additives, chemical fertilizers and other sectors; The second is the new energy sector, including photovoltaic and wind power. Due to the deterioration of the relationship between Russia and the western world, Europe will strive to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy, which is bound to accelerate the development of new energy industry to replace traditional energy. When the world's energy prices are hovering at a high level, the process of this substitution will be further accelerated.
Risk tip: the uncertainty of the trend of the Russian Ukrainian war; The uncertainty of European and American policies towards Russia; The epidemic lasted longer than expected
