Stock active strategy performance review:
In the first quarter, the average rate of return of the stock active strategy was – 13.27% (excluding private placement products with a company size of less than 500 million and a product size of less than 5 million), slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index, of which only 7% of the products achieved positive returns, and the average rates of return of the products with the top 10% and the bottom 10% were 3.92% and – 28.74% respectively. On a monthly basis, the average returns of the stock active strategy from January to March 2022 were – 6.41%, 0.57% and – 6.64% respectively. In terms of risk, the average maximum pullback of stock active strategy in recent one year is 21.22%.
According to the size classification of stock active strategy managers, the average decline of products of managers of all sizes in the first quarter was more than 10%, of which the average income of products of 10 billion private placement managers was relatively low, which was – 14.80%; The average income of the products of private equity managers with a scale of less than 1 billion is relatively high, which is – 11.03%. On the whole, the scale of private placement managers was negatively correlated with performance in the first quarter, and the performance of small and medium-sized private placement was better than that of large and medium-sized private placement. The number of products is counted according to different yield ranges. The yield of most products in the first quarter is distributed in the range of [- 30%, 0%], of which the number of products distributed in the range of [- 20%, – 10%] is the largest, with 3683, accounting for nearly half of the total sample. A total of 517 private placement products achieved positive returns in the first quarter, of which only 85 products had a yield of more than 10%.
According to the classification of investment style, the average returns of growth investment, growth value investment, value investment, style balance and reverse investment in the first quarter were – 13.15%, – 14.90%, – 13.13%, – 14.36% and – 19.61% respectively. Under the general decline pattern, there was no significant difference between styles. In terms of income in the past year, only the average income of growth investment in the past year is positive, and the average income of other styles in the past year is negative; In terms of risk, the average maximum pullback of style balanced investment in recent one year is relatively small. From the perspective of the largest monthly decline in the past year, only the largest monthly decline in growth investment occurred in January this year, and the largest monthly decline in growth value investment, value investment, style balance and reverse investment occurred in March this year.
Among the stock active strategy private placement companies focused by Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) financial products center, the representative products of Xinpu, shaodoupai, Gaoyi, Baoyin and Renqiao performed relatively well in the first quarter. Through the follow-up investigation of some private equity companies with active stock strategies, it is found that the allocation of private equity institutions tends to be balanced, and it is judged that the market is still in the shock bottom stage. It is considered that the supply chain and demand of most industries in China are affected by the Chinese epidemic, inflation, rising US bond interest rates and upside down interest rate difference between China and the United States caused by the aftermath of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or continue to put pressure on capital outflow and curb the growth style of a shares. Under the current situation, The hedging characteristics of value stocks are more favored by the market.
Analysis of investment environment of private equity funds:
Judge that the current market is at the bottom of the medium-term range. The performance inflection point may come faster this time. The bottom probability of the current round of A-share corporate profits is in the second quarter. The epidemic will affect the range, but will not affect the trend and rhythm. Peripheral factors may also show positive changes. The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is relatively sufficient; The upside down interest rate spread between China and the United States has a limited impact on China’s economy and stock market; At present, the outflow of foreign capital does not have a macro environment similar to that in 2015. In the direction of investment, focus on the stabilization and recovery of photovoltaic and other new energy sectors, lay out the TMT sector with high cost performance on the left, pay attention to the allocation value of securities companies, and gradually pay attention to the sectors benefiting from the mitigation of the epidemic.
Private placement industry trends:
According to the filing statistics of the fund industry association, 6601 securities private placement filing products were added in the first quarter. Among them, 271 securities private placement filing products were added to bank custody, with the largest number of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , 116 new. In the past year, the number and scale of new projects in February this year hit a one-year low.
Risk tips: the economic recovery is not as expected, the macro liquidity contraction risk, and the overseas black swan event.
