Background and logic of national unified market:
At present, the momentum of global economic growth has weakened, coupled with the intensification of overseas trade conflicts, the development of China's original "two ends out" model has been significantly hindered, and the supporting role of foreign demand in China's economic growth is facing uncertainty. Economic globalization has encountered a countercurrent, and the pattern of international economic cycle has been deeply adjusted. Therefore, we must adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, and lead and create a national unified market with innovation driven and high-quality supply.
We interpret the policy of opinions on national unified market mainly from the following four aspects: 1) the programmatic document for the implementation of internal circulation system and establish a unified and efficient internal market. 2) Highlight the principles of marketization and rule of law, reduce human intervention and local intervention, and establish a fair competition system. 3) The central government actively acts to unify regulatory rules and standards and break local barrier policies. 4) Focus on domestic demand, establish new growth drivers, encourage innovation and creation, and form a high-quality supply and super large-scale domestic demand market.
Analysis of the impact on commodities and deduction of the future development direction of the policy:
In terms of commodity resource market: 1) food security, food autonomy and control. We believe that it is still difficult to get rid of the dependence on overseas Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) imports in the short term, but it is beneficial to realize the strategic goal of grain autonomy in the long term; This year, we are still optimistic about the moderate rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price in China. 2) Energy security, combined with the analysis of the current external dependence of China's energy commodity market, one is a more comprehensive energy commodity market planning and the unified development of the spot market; The second is the development of new energy industry. We believe that in the face of the global shortage of traditional energy (oil and natural gas), China may accelerate the development of new energy industry, ensure the self-sufficiency of traditional energy such as power coal, and build an energy independent moat. Under the guidance of this policy, the long-term price of new energy non-ferrous metals (copper, nickel, silver and aluminum) will be favorable and the price of power coal will be unfavorable.
Infrastructure: build a modern logistics system to form a smooth and efficient Chinese cycle. 1) The key is to develop both new and old infrastructure and make long-term efforts. Among them, traditional infrastructure projects have a more obvious pulling effect on the black building materials sector in the first and medium term, but the demand center of black building materials is the real estate industry in essence, and the single pulling of traditional infrastructure has limited contribution to the improvement of the demand for black building materials in the long term. 2) The future development direction of new infrastructure may be photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, power grid system upgrading, charging pile, etc., which will benefit the price of new energy metals (copper, nickel, silver, aluminum, etc.) in the medium and long term.
In terms of industry: accelerate industry integration and improve the independent innovation of science and technology. First of all, we need to make use of the advantages of regional resource endowment to deepen the regional industrial division of labor; Coordinate and cooperate nationwide to optimize resource efficiency. At present, the existence of local protection and regional barriers in some regions has led to excessive homogeneous competition among a large number of small and micro enterprises. Abolishing territorial protective policies and carrying out industrial integration can effectively distribute production factors, build a new industrial chain and improve efficiency. Secondly, by improving the ability of scientific and technological innovation, expand technological enterprises, make up for the shortcomings and disadvantages in China's supply chain, and provide policy care for more small and medium-sized enterprises.
In terms of the consumer market, we will accelerate the narrowing of the gap between regional consumption levels and help upgrade consumption. At present, the endogenous driving force of economic growth is gradually shifting from investment driven to consumption driven. Compared with the United States, China still has great consumption potential to release, and stimulating the vitality of domestic demand through demand side reform has become a top priority. Income is the basis and premise of consumption. The difference of income level will determine the level of consumption ability. The root of income difference is caused by the imbalance of regional industrial development. Therefore, it is necessary to narrow the regional industrial imbalance and level the income gap. Finally, improve the quality of consumer services and realize consumption upgrading.
Capital market: give full play to the ability of finance to serve the real economy. First, we need to continue to give full play to the resource allocation capacity of the capital market and provide strong financing support for industrial upgrading. Secondly, we should vigorously develop the direct financing market. On the one hand, it can reduce the financing cost of enterprises and the debt ratio of enterprise departments. On the other hand, it will more directly support the development of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises. We believe that finance will continue to highlight the role of serving entities and continue to drive "steady growth" of the economy.
International circulation of foreign trade: improve international competitiveness and promote international trade circulation. With the unblocking of the blocking points of China's large circulation, we should make effective use of global factors and market resources with the support of a unified large market, so as to better connect the Chinese market with the international market. At the same time, we should improve the unified market system, maintain the healthy development of the market and promote institutional opening, so as to enhance global attraction and competitiveness.
