The overall decline in economic data in March clearly reflects the impact of repeated epidemics and increased real estate liquidity pressure on total demand. Under the background of slow progress in the steady growth policy, the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policy takes time, and the real estate liquidity pressure is difficult to be completely relieved, the process of macroeconomic slowdown in the second quarter may continue.
The central bank lowered the reserve requirement lower than expected, pushing up the interest rates of various maturities in the bond market. However, the macroeconomic slowdown and the spread of real estate liquidity pressure will limit the risk of systematic upward yield, and the bond market is expected to return to the downward channel after a short upward.
In March, the US CPI broke "8" year-on-year, which will stimulate the accelerated tightening of the Fed's monetary policy in the second quarter, and the rise of interest rates will also have a continuous impact on the NASDAQ index. The recent weakening of economic data in the eurozone deserves close attention.
Risk tips: (1) the epidemic development exceeded expectations; (2) Geopolitical risk
