Core view:
The National Bureau of statistics released the first quarter economic data on April 18. GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month. Against the background of the impact of the epidemic, it slightly exceeded the consensus expectation of the market. From the demand side, affected by the base effect, fixed asset investment has fallen, and infrastructure investment has taken on a steady growth. On the production side, industrial production fell in March. Employment data deteriorated significantly. Under certain constraints on monetary policy, fiscal and real estate policies will take more responsibility for steady growth.
Key investment points:
The economic rebound in the first quarter slightly exceeded expectations
The National Bureau of statistics released the first quarter economic data on April 18. GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month. Against the background of the impact of the epidemic, it should be said that supermarkets are in line with expectations. The average year-on-year growth rate of GDP was 4.9%. The added value of the secondary industry rebounded year-on-year, while the added value of the tertiary industry decreased year-on-year due to the drag of the epidemic.
Demand side: steady growth of infrastructure in March
From the demand side, affected by the base effect, fixed asset investment has fallen. However, from the perspective of the three-year year year-on-year growth rate excluding the base effect, the overall investment growth rate rebounded slightly. Among them, the rebound of infrastructure investment in March was very strong, which was the main factor supporting investment demand. The investment in manufacturing industry, which had been relatively strong, declined. The demand for real estate is still relatively weak. In March, the growth of retail sales of social consumer goods was impacted by the epidemic, and there was another significant negative growth.
Production side: industrial production fell in March
Industrial production fell in March. From some micro situations, the shutdown caused by the epidemic may also have a partial impact on industrial production. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value also decreased significantly, and the signs of weakness in the export sector may also be an important factor affecting industrial production. The output of major industrial products such as power generation and crude steel also declined; Consistent with the decline of industrial added value.
Deterioration of employment situation
The employment data released in March deteriorated significantly. The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.8%, and the survey unemployment rate in 31 large and medium-sized cities even exceeded the level of national shutdown from January to February 2020.
Steady growth and employment policies will continue to increase
The key to stabilizing employment still lies in bringing the actual economic growth back to the level of potential economic growth. This means that the year-on-year growth of GDP should not only reach the level of potential growth, but also exceed, which also means that greater policy adjustments still need to be introduced. If monetary policy is constrained by factors such as "paying close attention to the adjustment of monetary policy in major developed countries and taking into account internal and external balance", the heavy task of stabilizing growth will be put more on fiscal and real estate policies.
Risk tips
The economy is lower than expected, the policy is lower than expected, and the epidemic situation outside China has worsened
