The economic growth rate was generally stable, and the survey unemployment rate rose. In the first quarter, China's national economy continued to recover its development trend, and the economic operation was generally stable. In the first quarter, GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down 3.3 percentage points from 2021. By industry, the year-on-year growth rate of the three industries fell. At present, China is facing the pressure of insufficient demand and repeated epidemic, coupled with geopolitical influence, there is still uncertainty in economic recovery, but policies continue to help stabilize growth. In the first quarter, the per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents narrowed, the growth rate of consumer expenditure was flat, and the unemployment rate increased. 1. The increase in February was mainly due to seasonal factors, which has been mainly affected by the epidemic since March.
The monthly growth rate of industrial added value exceeded expectations, but the epidemic had an impact. From January to March, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to February. Under the favorable policies such as steady growth and stable supply and price, the resumption of work and production of enterprises is better. In March, the added value of industries above Designated Size in a single month actually increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and the added value of mining industry still led the rise. The general equipment manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry fell year-on-year. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine hit the global industrial chain and the impact of the epidemic in China. The realization of relevant industries was relatively weak. Recent frequent policies will further boost enterprise confidence. It is expected that industrial production will continue to recover under the condition of improvement of the epidemic situation.
With active financial support, the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased. From January to March, the investment in narrow infrastructure increased by 8.5% year-on-year. In addition to the year-on-year decline in the investment in railway transportation, the investment in water conservancy management, public facilities management and road transportation increased year-on-year. In March, the investment in narrow infrastructure increased by 8.78% year-on-year. With the promotion of active fiscal policy and warmer weather, the increase was larger than the previous value. This year, the issuance of local special bonds was large and the pace was fast. In February, the project of "counting from the east to the west" was fully launched, and the overall investment showed a good trend. However, the epidemic situation may affect the project progress in a short time.
The growth rate of real estate development investment and sales data fell, and the policy continued to relax. From January to March, the national real estate development investment increased by 0.7% year-on-year, 8.6 percentage points slower than the overall fixed asset investment. In the next three months, 17.9% of residents intend to buy houses, a new low since the third quarter of 2016. It is expected that the real estate supply side policy may be relaxed in the future. Coupled with the gradual improvement of the epidemic, the real estate sales and investment data may improve in the medium term, but they are still restricted by the epidemic and poor expectations in the short term. In March, real estate investment decreased by 2.39% year-on-year, 6.05 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous value. Development and sales data fell significantly.
The investment performance of manufacturing industry is relatively stable, but the impact of the epidemic should be paid attention to. From January to March, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 15.6%, which was the best among the three major investments. Under the influence of base fluctuation, it decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the previous value and maintained a high growth state. From the perspective of the industry, in addition to the slight increase in the growth rate of the automobile manufacturing industry, the investment growth rate of the other 12 sub industries fell from January to March compared with the previous value, partly due to the impact of base fluctuation. In addition, the scattered epidemic in many places in China also had a negative impact on enterprises. With policy support, the manufacturing industry is expected to maintain a steady trend.
Under the impact of the epidemic, consumption growth slowed significantly. In March, the total social consumption decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than expected. Retail sales fell by 2.1% year-on-year, and catering revenue was seriously affected by the epidemic. From the perspective of commodity categories, the consumption growth rate of upgraded products mostly fell; Affected by the downturn of the housing market, the growth rate of related household appliances and audio-visual equipment, furniture and construction and decoration materials fell significantly. In terms of expanding consumption in key areas, encouraging large-scale consumption such as cars and household appliances will become an important focus. It is expected that the short-term epidemic will continue to affect the consumption data in April, but in the medium term, with the strength of policies and the improvement of the epidemic, consumption is expected to usher in a restorative rebound.
Risk tip: the recovery of external demand and economic recovery are less than expected, and overseas changes are more than expected.
