In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1273.8 billion yuan over the same period last year; The stock of social finance was 325.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% (the previous value was 10.2%). M1 in March was 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month; M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. In March, 3232.8 billion yuan was added, an increase of 2324.4 billion yuan over the previous month.
Corporate loans rebounded in March, but residents fell back affected by the epidemic. In March, 3232.8 billion yuan was added, an increase of 2324.4 billion yuan over the previous month and 481.7 billion yuan over the same period last year. New loans to enterprises reached 248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 880 billion yuan. New loans to enterprises mainly came from short-term loans, of which short-term loans were less than 808.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 434.1 billion yuan, and long-term loans were 1344.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8 billion yuan. Corporate loans have improved, especially the medium and long-term loans have rebounded significantly. Residents' loans are still weak.
In March, residents' long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan, which was lower than that in the same period last year. Residents' short-term loans and medium and long-term loans both increased less year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 139.4 billion and 250.4 billion respectively. The tightening of the epidemic has suppressed some consumption and house purchase demand. We believe that after the epidemic eased, the residents' loan rate probably picked up.
The growth rate of social finance significantly exceeded expectations. In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations. From the perspective of driving factors, the main driving factors for the significant growth of social finance are new loans and government bonds. RMB loans increased by 3.2 trillion, an increase of 481.7 billion year-on-year, of which enterprise loans became the main contributor; Government bonds increased by 705.2 billion, an increase of 392.1 billion year-on-year. The forward development of finance will support social finance in the first half of the year. The amount of special bonds should be issued before the end of May, and government bonds in the first half of the year will be significantly improved year-on-year. Corporate bond financing was 357.3 billion yuan, down slightly from the previous month, indicating that the environment for corporate bond issuance is poor. The default of real estate bonds increases the financing cost of bonds, and enterprises prefer loan financing.
M2 rose under the broad currency. M1 in March was 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month; M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the residents' credit fell and the savings level increased, resulting in M1 still in a low position. The year-on-year scissors gap between M2 and social finance is expected to narrow, the capital side may tighten, and the downward space of bond interest rate is limited
